The Vault: Round 3
Thursday, January 17, 2013 | 10:25 AM
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“Let’s hope your stat is correct,” said Chad Reed in the pits after last year’s Los Angeles Supercross.
Reed had just captured the win in round three of the 2012 Monster Energy Supercross Championship, and we had just posted a statistical analysis pointing out that round three winners go on to win the SX title about 75 percent of the time. First round winners? Less than half.
Unfortunately for Reed, a crash and injury ended his chance of delivering last year. But we’re busting out the "Round Three Theory" again here in the Vault. Here are the round-three winners of the past 20 seasons of supercross, with some analysis thrown in. And by the way, in those last 20 seasons, the winner of round three has won 15 titles. The winner of round one has won only nine titles. Think about it.
Let’s dig into the Racer X Vault—which houses the results of every single AMA Supercross and Motocross race, ever—to find out more about round three.
1993:
Round Three Winner: Jeremy McGrath
Supercross Champion: Jeremy McGrath
Round three of ’93 marked McGrath’s first-ever career win. He’s now the all-time main event king. Pretty significant, eh? Surely no one expected the rookie to romp from here on out, but he won nine more races this year (to break the single-season win mark) and the championship. His success for the next few seasons—1994—1996—was similar. He won early and won often.
As for this Anaheim race, Young MC (remember that guy? Busta’ Move? Anyone?) passed defending SX Champion Jeff Stanton for the lead and checked out. It was as changing-of-the-guard as it gets.
1994:
Round Three Winner: Jeremy McGrath
Supercross Champion: Jeremy McGrath
After winning round three in '96, Jeremy McGrath went on to claim the title.
Racer X Archives photo
1995:
Round Three Winner: Jeremy McGrath
Supercross Champion: Jeremy McGrath
1996:
Round Three Winner: Jeremy McGrath
Supercross Champion: Jeremy McGrath
1997:
Round Three Winner: Jeff Emig
Supercross Champion: Jeff Emig
McGrath’s 1997 will forever be known as “The year he rode the Suzuki” and look, his round-three win streak ends at the hands of Jeff Emig. And who won the title that year? Yup, Emig. ‘Fro, by the way, admits to being a slow starter at the beginning of the season, because he doesn’t like cold weather. If he wins in January, you know he’s going to have a good year.
1998:
Round Three Winner: Ezra Lusk
Supercross Champion: Jeremy McGrath
Whoa! The streak is broken and a round-three winner does not go on to win the title. But if you saw this race you would have thought Lusk would win the title. He ran down McGrath and then passed him for the lead late in a rare straight-up defeat for The King. Unfortunately, Lusk crashed a few too many times during this season, but he sure was fast!
Jeff Emig won round three in 1997.
Round Three Winner: Jeremy McGrath
Supercross Champion: Jeremy McGrath
2000:
Round Three Winner: David Vuillemin
Supercross Champion: Jeremy McGrath
The Frenchman takes his first-ever win in U.S. 250 SX, proving he will be a formidable threat over the next few years. As a rookie to full-time 250SX, DV was really strong this year, but the veteran McGrath still had a little more.
2001:
Round Three Winner: Jeremy McGrath
Supercross Champion: Ricky Carmichael
Maybe it’s fitting that this win ended up being McGrath’s last, as it happened in the same building as his first, and nearly eight years to the day. In this race, young buck Ricky Carmichael was all over MC, but the champ held on for a thrilling victory.
RC did NOT win round three in 2002, but he did go on to win the title that year.
Racer X Archives photo
Round Three Winner: Mike LaRocco
Supercross Champion: Ricky Carmichael
Cycle News said it best with their cover headline after the race: “One for the Aged.” Indeed LaRocco was getting old, but he outdueled Vuillemin in a great race, and his first win since 1995. Eventual champion Carmichael was struggling at the beginning of the season after taking a huge digger at the Anaheim opener.
2003:
Round Three Winner: Ricky Carmichael
Supercross Champion: Ricky Carmichael
Oh, Reedy! Rookie Reed won Anaheim 1 and finished a close second to Lusk at round two. Carmichael appears to be on the ropes, but Reed crashes back to sixth in this one, while Carmichael wins and takes the points lead. He wouldn’t give it back. By the way, Sebastien Tortelli finished third in this one, and it was one of his best all-around rides ever in supercross.
2004:
Round Three Winner: Chad Reed
Supercross Champion: Chad Reed
I’m telling you, round three often provides the best races. In this one, Reed, Vuillemin and Kevin Windham went at it hard nearly the whole way. Reed’s win is a portent to a title. Round three, baby!
2005:
Round Three Winner: Ricky Carmichael
Supercross Champion: Ricky Carmichael
Chad Reed won round three and the title in 2008.
Simon Cudby photo
2006:
Round Three Winner: Ricky Carmichael
Supercross Champion: Ricky Carmichael
Highly underrated race. James Stewart is on his game this year with his new Kawi 450, and he hands it to Carmichael and company at the December World SXGP races in Canada, then wins Anaheim 1. RC says he’s working on finding the speed to match James, and he finds it here, pressing his young challenger the whole way, until Stewart washes out and goes down. Carmichael would leave with the points lead.
2007:
Round Three Winner: James Stewart
Supercross Champion: James Stewart
2008:
Round Three Winner: Chad Reed
Supercross Champion: Chad Reed
2009:
Round Three Winner: James Stewart
Supercross Champion: James Stewart
Great race here, Stewart is still struggling to adjust to his new Yamaha (remember there was a time when the 2009 Yamaha seemed old, and the 2010 was revolutionary and awesome?) while Reed is loving his Suzuki. But, Reed can’t get a start on his yellow bike, either. He nearly runs Stew down at the end, but James hangs on. Swing this result the other direction and Reed wins the ’09 SX title. Every race counts!
After a win at round three in 2012, Chad Reed suffered an injury later in the season, which lead to Ryan Villopoto winning the title.
Simon Cudby photo
2010:
Round Three Winner: Ryan Dungey
Supercross Champion: Ryan Dungey
2011:
Round Three Winner: Ryan Villopoto
Supercross Champion: Ryan Villopoto
Maybe as good a ten laps of SX racing as you’ll ever see. Stewart and Dungey are battling early in this one, but Villopoto comes flying through the pack, seemingly from nowhere, to catch the leaders. He shows Stewart a wheel a few times until Stewart washes the front. RV wins round three and later takes the title. Fifteen out of the last twenty years, that’s been the case.
2012:
Round Three Winner: Chad Reed
Supercross Champion: Ryan Villopoto
Oh, Reedy!
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Hey bd200 check it out. "Highly underrated race. James Stewart is on his game this year with his new Kawi 450, and he hands it to Carmichael and company at the December World SXGP races in Canada, then wins Anaheim 1. RC says he’s working on finding the speed to match James"
So then round 3 becomes the first pivotal race...MC doing the trick 5 times and RC 3 times helped the stat gain traction..Reed and Stewart are the only others to have done it multiple time, twice each, leaving Emig, Villopoto, and Dungey as others who have each accomplished the feat.
I notice that this article only goes back to 93, since I am lazy, I will ask.. What about the stats prior..Who did it first? Are there other riders who have done it multiple times?..I am sure the crack staff at RacerX can answer these questions...
Sweeet. We will crown a champion this week. All they need to do is have the lowest lap time to win the main to win the title. Going to be some bar banging!
OK, may be I am not so lazy I did some quick home work and found out that form 74 through 92... Only 4 riders did the feat, winning the 3rd round and then the title... Ellis in 75, as he dominated the supercrosss series winning all 4 rounds...79 Hannah pulled it off...86 saw Johnson do it ...and 90 Stanton did the trick...Going back in time, the stat loses some of its shine....
Does this stat mean much given that in most of these years one man dominated? Is there a round where the percentage is even higher? I think what this really shows is that it often takes a few rounds for the champ-to-be to get his poop in a group. Does it fall apart if we go back another 10 years? When you put together the percentage of races in those 20 years that were won by MC, RC, Stewart, Reed, Dungey and RV it doesn't leave much for the others. Throw K-Dub in too?
i hope stewart and vilapoto do good this sat
In 39 years of supercross, 3rd round winners, won the title,19 times. By my math it is 48.7% of the time..Don't be afraid to double check me on my math, as I skipped a lot of school to ride my dirt bike...but over the long haul, the percentage drops off from 3/4 of the time to less than 1/2 the time..Whew, good to know we still have some meaningful racing to go....lol... This still could go down as the best supercross season ever!!
I remember one thing. James Stewart was getting beat on his kx250, then Kawi made a 450. Stewart CLAIMED he was avg 4-5sec a lap faster on the 450 and that Carmichael was going down.
Well, his lap times didn't change. He was usually within .5 of RC every practice faster or slower. Obviously the four stroke didn't make him go faster, but it certainly helped his starts and made him get in the mix earlier laps in the races.
@rickamatuzio
whats your point? you probably couldn't find any proof of james himself saying that...maybe someone around him...but not him...and again, whats ur point...he probably was 4-5 sec faster on the outdoor track at his house...who cares...
or are you just hatin?
#fishin
Look at all the gear in the pictures that the riders were wearing.Everyone's but Reeds look much better than what you can get today.
@BillC, UHHH!! OK so whats your point?? It also says RC finds it and leaves with the points lead... Like always, Stewie never took it back either.. So what??
@remember BillC. RC has never won the opening round, in supercross.. No wins at A1 or the stupid World Supercross races are whatever they were called. Reed beat RC at the first race of the year a few times also.. Big whoopeee!!
Milsaps' winning (again) sure would get the tounges wagging.
I predict more front-end washouts. No camera equipment or scaffolding will be harmed in this weekend's activities. The riders on the other hand.........
@ bd200 & BillC, remember the year RC won the AMA title & Stewart won the FIM title? Everybody had their knickers in a twist over who the "real" SX champ was. I guess the record book cleared the air on that one.
@BD25 - a 50% chance if you win round 3 is still pretty good odds, but your point that the stats are skewed by the past 20 years is well taken.
@bd200 - remember, Bill C only likes green, so it doesn't matter who the rider is, just the color of the bike, lol.
@carlsbad--Yes I remember some guys tried to say Stewart earned a real title with that dumb World supercross title crap. and in the big top 30 riders story nobody counts the thing.. BillC, defended that dumb title till the end..LOL!!!! I guess you are right carlsbad the record is clear..
This story is just plain HOOEY ! In the old days you had to really work the bike. These lazy punks today just turn the throttle and hang on. IF THEY CAN,and pray for a good out-come... Bring back a bike that requires a ride to put some ass into it!
ALA 2 STROKE 250CC
@Sloan--the 4-strokes can definately make a rider lazy. they pull well in taller gears and you dont work the clutch as much for sure.. Race a 125 2-stroke and see how aggressive a rider has to be ..... and they are awesome.. Still have my 200 2-stroke myself, I will never get rid of that one..
WINGNUT,
What about Rd, 5 winners ?!?!
bd200 the point is you always said RC did not care about the first 2 rounds that year and did not care but what did RC say??"RC says he’s working on finding the speed to match James" so he must have been trying right?
.And no I don't just like Green bike riders. My top 5 fav riders are . (in randome order)
.RV
.RD (Not lieing either)
.JS
.ET
.BB
bd200
Yes I raced 125 for about 10 years till gettin the big bike !! I love the 2 smoker
as for the "I guess the record book cleared the air on that one" it is a "AMA" record book so I would assume it would say RC. The thing that I don't get is WHY you guys give JS no props for BEATING RC for the other title?? They both raced all the rounds and JS won it. You will NEVER convince me that RC layed down and did not try to win both cuz RC never through a leg over a bike behind a gate and did not give 100%. The fact that the world title did not mean as much at the AMA title does not matter. They both gave 100% and JS won it.
@BILLC, I NEVER said RC didnt care about those 2 rounds.. I said NOBODY cares about those stupid titles.. Of course RC was trying to find speed, the AMA Supercross was starting, the REAL title..The other title gets NO PROPS because nobody cares, its not a real supercross title, it only included 2 races there, and Daytona didnt even count.. If Daytona counted RC wins that title also, so you take AMA races away.. So climb back off Stewie sack, you sound like you did back in your Stewtard days a few years ago.. RC won the real title that year, and Stewie never took the title from the GOAT... hahahahhahahaha!!!
I think Kyle Lewis even has a World Supercross Title..LOL Yea, thats a big title alright..LOL
Hey douchebag, my point? James said it in a racer x interview!! My point is, he was full of sh!t.
He also said he would die before he let RC beat him.. you want proof of that one too?
Moron. Doesn't take a genius to see my point
CR500AF I was just looking at what they brought up about winners of round 3 being champ 75% of the time, while winners of round one less than 50% of the time. As I went back, we saw that round 3 winners 19 out of 39 years for 48.7%, checking round 1 winners 16 out of 39 years for 41%...MC did it 4 times, CR did it 2 times, RV did it 2 times...Stewart, Ward, O'mara, Bailey, Hanson, Bell, Hannah, and Ellis are the other 8 to win round 1 and the title..
Yup Kyle Lewis may even have a World Supercross Title, RC even raced for the title one year and finished 2nd!! weather you like it or not BD200 RC got beat for the title. You may not care at all but i bet RC would rather have won it than finished 2nd but hey ya can't win them all!!
Kyle Lewis did not win it. The Champs who won that prestigious title are Reed, RC, James (twice) and HEATH VOSS. Seriously, that was the biggest joke ever...adding two rounds to the existing AMA SX series and referring to it as a completely different title? I think RC skipped the two rounds at least once......and only James' fans include these titles in his championship list. It is a nice career highight for Voss, but akin to an Arenacross title for Reed or RC.
Yes B-KR the only year the top guys did it was the year JS won it. I agree it's not a prestigious title, but that does not change the fact that JS beat RC, Do you really believe that RC did not try his best? if you feel he tried then the title must have ment something to even RC or he would have stayed home.
Yes BK-R I agree.. ONLY Stewtards count that title.. The
Racer X poll didnt even count that So-Called title.. He ck Daytona didnt even count, if it did, RC wins that "title", I am sure RC never lost no sleep over that.. LOL!! He won the only title that year in my opinion..
RC and almost every other rider used those rounds to test and get ready, if they got the win great.. It was a testing ground.. RC said the year AFTER he skipped it that it would be smart to run those two to get everything ready for A1.. RC's words..