by Aaron Hansel
Bench Racing Ammo: Prelude to a Title
Wednesday, January 11, 2012 | 11:00 AM
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PrintAfter Ryan Villopoto’s dominating performance at Anaheim 1, we thought it’d be cool to compare A1 race winners with title winners of the same year to see what kind of correlation we could find between the two. We chose 1999 as a starting point, because that’s when the opener returned to Anaheim after being held in the Los Angeles Coliseum for several years. Have a look at the stats below, and if you spot any interesting trends, be sure to share them with us in the comments section.
1999
A1 Winner: Ezra Lusk - Finished second in the series
Champ: Jeremy McGrath - Finished seventh at A1
2000
A1 Winner: Jeremy McGrath
Champ: Jeremy McGrath
Ezra Lusk took home the A1 win in 1999, but finished second behind McGrath when all was said and done.
Photo: Moto Verte
2001
A1 Winner: Jeremy McGrath - Finished second in the series
Champ: Ricky Carmichael - Finished third at A1
2002
A1 Winner: David Vuillemin - Finished second in the series
Champ: Ricky Carmichael - Finished twentieth at A1 (DNF)
2003
A1 Winner: Chad Reed - Finished second in the series
Champ: Ricky Carmichael - Finished second at A1
2004
A1 Winner: Chad Reed
Champ: Chad Reed
2005
A1 Winner: Kevin Windham - Finished third in the series
Champ: Ricky Carmichael - Finished third at A1
Reed would take the win at A1 in 2003, but the GOAT would take home the title.
Photo: Moto Verte
2006
A1 Winner: James Stewart - Finished second in the series
Champ: Ricky Carmichael - Finished third at A1
2007
A1 Winner: James Stewart
Champ: James Stewart
2008
A1 Winner: Chad Reed
Champ: Chad Reed
2009
A1 Winner: Josh Grant - Finished fourth in the series
Champ: James Stewart - Finished nineteenth at A1 (DNF)
2010
A1 Winner: James Stewart - Finished twentieth in the series (injury)
Champ: Ryan Dungey - Finished second at A1
2011
A1 Winner: Ryan Villopoto
Champ: Ryan Villopoto
Stewart took home the A1 win and the title in 2007.
Photo: Simon Cudby
The championship odds do not favor the winner of A1. Since 1999, the A1 victor has gone on to win the title just five times, or roughly 38.5 percent of the time. Part of the reason this percentage is so low is because five-time SX Champ Ricky Carmichael never won the opener.
Although several riders have come back from poor finishes at the opener to win the title (McGrath - seventh in ‘99, Carmichael - twentieth in 2002, James Stewart - nineteenth in 2009), it isn’t common. In fact, since 1999, the series champ has been on the box at A1 all but three times.
During this time period, only four competitors that have won at A1 lack championship rings; Ezra Lusk, David Vuillemin, Kevin Windham and Josh Grant.
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Next broadcast, I want to see Ricky wear all his rings at once Gangsta style!
Only trend i see is that RC was 1 fast sob
Chad and James are solid riders!
I get a little dizzy looking at the names but it appears no one has won A1 and Champ two years in a row.
Acejas, that's funny. RC is the man, but that coat he wore for the broadcast looked like he borrowed it from Ralph. Perhaps that is the coat Ralph wears to metal shows. Seriously, zippers! Tassels on the sleeves!
He's the GOAT, somebody give him a coat....
The Ricky not taking the opener is the what even leaves this open to any discussion.
if almost 40% of the time the opener winner is the champ, then add in RC's 5 missed opener victories and you have an obvious trend.
76.9% of the time the opener winner wins the series.
AND
It is odd the RC did not take the opener in any of those 5 titles.
twice the cham DNF'ed A1. Can't wait till Sat night.
Ricky did not like the hard slick tracks of the west especially in supercross, he did all his damage when it went back east. Some say the GOAT spotted them the start just to be challenged for the year. The only thing RV is spotting the boys is a good butt kicking.
Nice write up of the facts.
you need to take the 2008 result out of the percentage since JS didn't finish the series which skews the results...jus sayin
I've said it before on this site and I'm gonna say it again...
Until the 450 field (someone in it) finds the corner speed RV has, contenders may get a win here and there but the championship (barring injury) is inevitable.
Stats can be used anyway one wants...history belongs to those who make it.
Please someone step up and find the speed to consistently run with this guy...
Why does anyone really give a crap what kind of jacket a guy wore?? Who freakin' cares, we dont have to look at them, just hear them,. And the main reason the precentage of A1 winners didnt win the title, is RC never did well at A 1--But we all know what he did during the rest of the season. Cant wait for Pheonix, this season should be epic.
@Open_Class - but RC didn't take the opener. That is the point, the article isn't about "What Ifs" it is just stats. Just cause someone gets lucky and wins the opener, doesn't mean they will take the title.
I'll give you an interesting stat.
Only once has a champion won the title, not won for 2 or more years straight, and then won again. That would be Reed in 2004 and then in 2008. Every other multi-time champ either won in consecutive years, or only missed the title for one year before winning again.
If reed wins again this year hell have won a championship every 4 years 04 08 12 kool as
@LowTide76--I wouldnt call RV1's win in the opener "lucky", he waxed the field, and turned in lap times over a second faster than everyone else.