by Aaron Hansel
Bench Racing Ammo: No Bad Races?
Wednesday, February 6, 2013 | 2:35 PM
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PrintWith five rounds down, Red Bull KTM’s Ken Roczen has yet to miss a podium. He took second at the first three, and he’s won the last two in a row. Thanks to his dazzling consistency, he now enjoys a 20-point lead over Eli Tomac in second place. How long can he keep this up? Will he be on the podium for the rest of the Western Regional 250SX series? To get some perspective, we dug into the stats and looked at how many times the eventual 250SX champion has missed the podium in points-paying races in the last ten years. We’ve also made a note of it when the champ’s result was fifth or worse on the night he missed the podium.
2012
East Justin Barcia – on podium eight of nine times
West Eli Tomac – seven of nine. DNF’d San Diego
2011
East Barcia – nine of nine
West Broc Tickle – seven of nine
Trey Canard missed the podium three times en route to his 2008 East Region title.
Andrew Fredrickson photo
2010
East Christophe Pourcel – six of eight. Seventh in Dallas, DNF’d St. Louis
West Jake Weimer – six of eight. Eighth at A3, fifth in Salt Lake City
2009
East Pourcel – six of eight. Fifth in St. Louis
West Ryan Dungey – six of eight
2008
East Trey Canard – four of seven. Tenth in Detroit
West Jason Lawrence – six of eight. Fifth in Phoenix, DNF’d A2
2007
East Ben Townley – five of seven. DNF’d Atlanta, seventh in Orlando
West Ryan Villopoto – eight of eight.
2006
East Davi Millsaps – seven of seven
West Grant Langston – six of eight. Fifteenth in San Francisco
2005
East Langston – five of seven. Fifteenth in Daytona
West Ivan Tedesco – six of eight. Eighth at A1, Eighth in Houston
Ben Townley would miss the podium twice in 2007 on his way to the East Region title.
Simon Cudby photo
2004
East James Stewart – six of seven. Undefeated in every race he lined up for, Stewart sat Indy out this year after crashing hard in practice.
West Tedesco – eight of eight
2003
East Branden Jesseman – six of seven. Sixth in Pontiac
West James Stewart – eight of eight
The numbers above tell us that it’s rare for the champion to finish on the box at every single race. In fact, it’s only been done five times in the twenty championships listed here (Justin Barcia in the East in 2011, Ryan Villopoto in the West in 2007, Davi Millsaps on the East in 2006, Ivan Tedesco in the West in 2004 and James Stewart on the West in 2003).
The most common number of missed boxes by the champ is two, which, in the data above, happens exactly 50 percent of the time.
Can Roczen continue his podium run in San Diego?
Simon Cudby photo
The most podiums missed in a single season by the champ is three. Trey Canard did that in his rookie year in 2008 with four podium appearances in seven attempts.
History tells us that most champs run into at least a little bit of trouble on their way to the title, but right now Tomac needs Roczen to make a sizable mistake. How often does that happen? In the twenty championships above, there have been twelve instances where the series champion made significant blunders throughout the course of the season. That’s a fair amount, but it’s not enough frequency to declare it a rule. Will Roczen make it through the whole season without a big mistake, and essentially lock everyone out of title contention? Take a look at the stats above and tell us what interesting trends and facts you see in the data.
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Roczen wins one more and ends up standing on the top step of the championship podium and no one will ever be able to argue his place in the record books.
The naysayers and "what-ifers" need to heed a saying we have down South: "If your Aunt had balls, then she would have been your Uncle."
I wanted Tomac to repeat more than anyone, but it looks like it isn't going to happen.
I agree foundwood - roczen looks too strong and too comfortable out there right now...and Eli, i have said it, countless people have, makes his onw bad luck with less than stellar starts. - Roczen is a smart kis and I think if he is going toe to toe with ELI and feels a bit uncomfortable will back it down a notch for a second - which Eli cannot afford to do. 4 races 20 points? good luck Eli - the real problem lies in that apart from the spotty (at best) Davalos, the inconsistent Seely and the fast but yet to podium Jason Anderson there is no one out there that can get in between Eli and Roczen. It has not been done thus far.
Smart kid...
Been rooting for Roczen since he first came over......like his style and demeanor. His still young, but is having a great deal of success early. If he sticks with Roger he will be a force for many years to come. i See him and Tomac having many battles in the Big Boy class really soon.....Keep on two wheels KRoc this series needs a little Euro flair.
Sorry Davalos did just this past weekend - I am an idiot - signing out now.
NO PIZZA FOR YOU !
I think we kinda need to look at 1st and 2nd here to get a better idea. How often has the Champ made a error but it was ok because 2nd was no where to contest? Or really how often has second come back from a sizable defect and how late in the season did it happen? How often does history actually repeat itself? How does the sun set? How exactly does a posi-trac rear-end on a Plymouth work?
To many ways to look at the numbers here! Thanks for the article but I think I am going to dig around in the Vault a bit since I have my mind spinning like crazy right now.
Kenny is looking good out there this season. I guess the big difference in his performance from the past is that he is having fun now, more relaxed and more focused.
Losing this title won't hurt Tomac one little bit. His career is pointed straight up.
As for K-Roc, euromike needed him to win this title desperately.
carlsbad- if Ken does win the title, we will never hear the end of it from euromike.
Qualifying for the night show alone is enough for euromike to run his mouth.
All the more reason for Kenny to win it. These forums ate getting a little stale. Bring on EuroMike
Euromike can run his mouth all he wants. He had to be right eventually after years of being wrong. Even dummies get something right once in a while ;)
LOL! Thanks guys, for not letting me down. I just knew that either Mike himself, or someone that thought of him, would bring him up. Like him or not, he is part of this forum too. Hopefully the favorable comments here won't deter his attitude. His initial complaint was that we didn't give enough credit to the euro's. K R and M M are well liked here, for the most part, I believe.
Maybe Ripdown was right, it was getting a little stale around here, euromike will definitely liven things up!
Musquin and Roczen are incredible, so it's not really worth arguing with him. ha ha
@ notreed
Here you go PUNK !
http://twitter.com/joshhansen100/status/299286002986532864/photo/1
Jlaw and lil Honey look stoned Lol !
Just look at their eyes!
http://motocross.transworld.net/1000143305/features/exclusive-jason-lawrence-at-pala-raceway/?pid=132846#ngtop
@ meankx
ya the eyes....and the haze / smoke in the picture.....blaze on boys! But stay the hell off the track
Hare Krishna
Mother Fuuucker
Every body was saying that Tomac is going to win every race. He has the championship on look down. Them boom he hits the deck.
Now everyone is saying the same about Kenny..... We will see. However mistakes are to unpredictable.
so in the words of foundwood ..."if your aunt had balls she'd be euromike"...hare krisna M'fer...
Roczen is a World Champion. He knows how to navigate a championship and all the pressure and challenges that can pop up along the way. That maturity, combined with the points lead he now enjoys are going to be difficult for Tomac to overcome.
@ VISTAJIM
Mxbob and Blow C remind me of the Burritto as big as your Butt !!!
LOL!
Short series, young mistake prone riders, lots of champions have survived bad races and even DNF's. Now, let's look at what consistent top 5's do for riders in the 450 class. Or when was the last time a 450 championship has been won by a rider who finished outside the top 10, 2 or more times in a season?
@JBryant - 2012 Poto Last year of course missing multiple mains. 1998 - MC finished outside top 10 twice.
They are the only 2 times in the past 20 years it has happen.
@groundy056: Nice job with the homework! MC could have DNF'd two more races that year and still won! And RV with a DNF and two missed rounds is huge – but who didn't miss rounds last year? (Davi didn't even crack the top 5 until Atlanta.) And RV still l won the championship by more than 2 races! Crazy year last year...
This year, only Dungey, Millsaps, Short, and Trey have yet to miss the top ten. Millsaps, all top 5's so far...
We will see how nervous Kenny can get. It could be not at all or, if he's human, very much so. We shall see. I think it affected Eli in Vegas two years ago.
Not hearing anything out of Eli. He must be rattled.
K-Roc would need an EPIC melt down to blow this title. I still hope he ride the 350 for the east rounds. Could get in there for sure and take some points.
I'm just busting euromike. I like Roczen a lot. Not for the reasons euromike does, but I think his future here is bright.
I wonder if KTM has another 450 rider in mind for immediate hire or are they going to wait for K-Roc & MM to move up? They each have another two years in class if I'm not mistaken.
As for euromike, a lot of what he says is just inflammatory, so I try not to take the bait. I like a lot of the euro racers (and Aussies & SA's too), I just don't think they're the be-all, end-all of the MX scene. Certainly not SX.
As I've posted before, I think a TRANS-AMA-type race that crossed the Atlantic and gave each rider / team / etc a fair chance would be the best. I just need to find someone to bankroll & promote it....
@ BillC, that is an enormous gamble for KTM & GEICO. I understand E.T. is moving up and his growth makes his move pretty much necessary, but KTM wants this 250W title bad and the risks might outweigh the rewards.
I think racers should race, but I'm not a decision-maker for these teams and I have zero at stake.
Interesting points. I have noted Roc and Tomac have had practice lap times equal to and faster than the fastest 450 guys. Those two guys riding 450’s on the break could cause huge point fluctuations if they finish somewhere in the 2-4th place positions. Tomac certainly showed at the Monster Cup he is fast and Roczen has shown blazing speed as well. Those two are men among boys in the 250 class.
The gamble is keep practicing to avoid greater chance of injury OR keep racing to stay combat ready. Difficult call.
I am wondering if Roczen riding any east coast rounds would be wise choice. The kid is half way through a title chase, not to sure about taking unnecessary chances.
@CZMark: I feel the same way. Why risk anymore possibilities when you have such potential, so near. Unless I have missed something here on these boards (which would not be the first) I can't see Ken, or anyone in RB/KTM that would think the benefits of riding a few 450 rounds would out-way the risks of your 1st 250cc Monster World Championship Supercross.
I bet if you sat Ken, Kelly, Roger, Ken's Parents, (and most probably God included), down, they would all say, "Have you completely lost touch of your faculties, Man???..."
KR could get wacked into 20ft off the line in his next heat race and be out. I suggest we do what KR and ET will be doing and just take it one race at a time.
Note in case the above is prescient: KR never said he had it in the bag.
LOVE to see KR on the 350, but hard to believe anyone will think that's a good idea at this point. But who could argue with DeCoster? If he feels keeping KR uptempo and his mind off the 250 championship, maybe he OKs it. Not a lot more risk than 'effen up at the practice track.
Jon-
I agree, they will be podium contenders on the 450. It's nonsense saying its a risk to ride the 450 class, it's competitive racing that keeps them sharp as the racing goes east. I guarantee you both of them will ride a few rounds.
I would not be surprised one bit if Roczen easily put down faster laps on that 350 than the entire 450 class. I think that bike is sized just right for SX, and Roczen is already just as fast as RV on a 250.
Life's riders have been racing the premier class as long as I can remember, but the only reason I see the possibility if Kenny staying away if they are worried about him getting ahead of Dungey. I'm sure he would be there to help tho.. Should be interesting
Good comments alll I like the odds of Ken pulling it off! Those of us that have raced know anythng and I mean anything can happen! So I learned a long time ago to not count my cookies till they hatch, By the way go into a store and ask the workers , it usually works best to go to a wall mart and ask someone with the blue vest on "Where do you keep the Chickens in a shell?" Most of those people think chocklate milk comes from a brown cow also?? Wait this is a motocross site! Why did someone mention J-law and Hansen in the same sentance???
@Rickamatuzio: Stranger things have happened in the world for sure, as some 250 riders go big in the Eastern rounds. That said, I would be more surprised to see Ken Roczen show up on a 350, than not. True, racing helps keep that edge, but when you have all that he has to lose, with one little incident, that could eliminate him from (possibly) obtaining his number one goal, that being a shot at the Championship, (which just so happens to be why he came all this way), sounds like a risky bet, in my opinion. What does he (need) to prove, that he's not already done during the MXdN in Lommel. This is why I don't like predictions, it's all speculation, I cannot read crystal balls.
I will leave that stuff up to you guys who can.
PS: I would be much less surprised to see Eli aboard a 450 as that is where he is going this summer. And...he is 20 points down on the first place rider. Which is getting more risky as each race finds him in less than first. So, I expect to see him, and frankly would be totally surprised to (not) see Eli aboard a 450.
Ken Roczen, not so much, maybe, but I ain't bett'n on that dog, in that hunt!
Woof!