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Bench Racing Ammo: Opening Winners

Wednesday, May 16, 2012 | 9:45 AM

With the 2012 Lucas Oil Motocross Championship, sanctioned by AMA Pro Racing, season about to commence, we thought it’d be interesting to take a look at how some of the past premiere-class champions have faired at the first race of the series. Listed below are the results from every single season opener since 1972, along with the corresponding champion.

Year Round 1 Winner Series Chamion
1972 Sonny DeFeo Gary Jones
1973 Bob Grossi Gary Jones
1974 Bill Grossi Gary Jones
1975 Kent Howerton Tony DiStefano
1976 Jimmy Ellis Tony DiStefano
1977 Marty Smith Tony DiStefano
1978 Bob Hannah Bob Hannah
1979 Bob Hannah Bob Hannah
1980 Kent Howerton Kent Howerton
1981 Kent Howerton Kent Howerton
1982 Ricky Johnson Donnie Hansen
1983 Bob Hannah David Bailey
1984 Bob Hannah Rick Johnson
1985 Jeff Ward Jeff Ward
1986 Rick Johnson Rick Johnson
1987 Rick Johnson Rick Johnson
1988 Jeff Ward Jeff Ward
1989 Jean Michel Bayle Jeff Stanton
1990 Rick Johnson Jeff Stanton
1991 Jeff Stanton Jean Michel Bayle
1992 Jeff Stanton Jeff Stanton
1993 Mike Kiedrowski Mike Kiedrowski
1994 Mike LaRocco Mike LaRocco
1995 Jeremy McGrath Jeremy McGrath
1996 Jeremy McGrath Jeff Emig
1997 Jeff Emig Jeff Emig
1998 Mickael Pichon Doug Henry
1999 Sebastien Tortelli Greg Albertyn
2000 Ricky Carmichael Ricky Carmichael
2001 Tim Ferry Ricky Carmichael
2002 Ricky Carmichael Ricky Carmichael
2003 Ricky Carmichael Ricky Carmichael
2004 Ricky Carmichael Ricky Carmichael
2005 Ricky Carmichael Ricky Carmichael
2006 James Stewart Ricky Carmichael
2007 Ricky Carmichael Grant Langston
2008 James Stewart James Stewart
2009 Ryan Villopoto Chad Reed
2010 Chad Reed Ryan Dungey
2011 Chad Reed Ryan Villopoto


If you use this data to predict the 2012 champ after round one, you won’t have much to go on, as the season’s first winner has won the title nineteen times in forty races. In other words, the win ratio is split almost completely down the middle, and that percentage is heavily influenced by Ricky Carmichael winning both the opener and the title five times.

Interestingly enough, when the gate drops at the FMF Hangtown Motocross Classic this weekend, the only past winner of an opening round that will be present is James Stewart, and that opening round win took place at Hangtown a full six years ago! With a scenario like this and the inconclusive data above, there’s a good chance that we’ll have just as many questions after Hangtown as we do now!

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The Conversation

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Blackjack wrote: 9:55am May 16, 2012

1st RD
2nd JS
3rd JW

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122R wrote: 10:02am May 16, 2012

These stats are not really viable considering there use to be a 250 and a 500 class. and in the old days 70's early 80's the premier class was the 500 then it shifted to the 250. It's about 50/50 at best on how important a win at Hangtown is. I would say it's more important on how well you don't do at hangtown then if you win or not, look at the lites results talk about topsy terby results it's more like what crazy things will happen at Hangtown. I

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BillC wrote: 10:02am May 16, 2012

Just hopeing for some good close raceing between RD and JS. Would like to think someone else could be up there with them but don't think so.

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MustardDog wrote: 10:06am May 16, 2012

only thing this tells me is RC was one bad a## mofo

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ElsinoreRacer wrote: 10:33am May 16, 2012

yea, and reminds me how unfortunate it was with Langston's eye. We have missed out on several years seeing a top guy race. Good fellow, too.

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KilloMoto wrote: 10:34am May 16, 2012

Can't wait for Moto 1....James will be fast no doubt... The conditioning will be the factor of who takes the OA

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Mr_Mx wrote: 10:41am May 16, 2012

@ the 1 eyed jackJoker

I'll go with Deadmau 5 prediction!!!!


Rapid Reaction

Mrs_Mx wrote:6:42pm May 7, 2012

Mrs_Mx Mr_Mx

Hangtown Overall: Hangtown Overall:

1. Stewart 1. Stewart
2. Dungy 2. Dungy
3. Short 3. Weimer

Deadmau5

Hangtown Overall

1. Dungey

2. Stewart ( if stays on 2 wheels ) if not A. Short

3. Weimer

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mbmoto wrote: 11:52am May 16, 2012

Weimer will not be in top 5 and even better prediction is that he finishes outside top 10 in one moto. justin brayton and milsaps will both be in top 5..... dark horse is tommy hahn for a podium.

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ElsinoreRacer wrote: 11:57am May 16, 2012

Everyone is forgetting Rattray on a 450 at last year's MXDN. Conditioning-wise, he is a bull and just gets faster as the moto winds down. He is going to be on a lot of overall podiums.

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BD25 wrote: 12:19pm May 16, 2012

In three days the wait will be over and the gates will fall and we will see who has been putting in the workl...Dungey and Stewart will have the most speed, but Alessi goes good at Hangtown and may have some thing for the big two..Short Milsaps, Brayton, Hahn, Rattray, Sipes and Wiemer will be battleing inside the a tight top ten..Gonna be a Good one !!!

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Ripdown wrote: 12:46pm May 16, 2012

@ Elsinore

I haven't forgot Rattray....or any of the others. As I posted on another thread.....everyone is handing this to Dungey or Stewart and disregarding a group of well conditioned guys with something to prove......I expect to see more than a few different race winners as the series goes on.

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MX Bob wrote: 12:46pm May 16, 2012

I'd include Metcalfe in the list of guys in the 3-6 cluster. Rattray and Hahn may take a few races to find their groove.

DUNGEY RULES! (going retro)

Tomac in the 250s

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Snooze wrote: 12:59pm May 16, 2012

Overall
1. RD
2. JW
3. JB
4. JS
5. DM

JS will be fast, but I don't see him pushing the pace. I don't know if he'll let it all hang out right now and jeopardize his 2013 season. Especially if, he's not getting paid. Now if he's in the hunt come the last few races, then I see him going after that #1 plate.

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KilloMoto wrote: 1:07pm May 16, 2012

whether or not JS7 takes risks or "pushes" it is one thing...but these guys, ALL of these guys go out there to win....I think James is just trying to play possum and releive some of the pressure....and avoid the backlash he recieved in SX after saying he was going after MC's record....James will be up front and the biggest enemy will be the training and conditioning.....who knows...he could pull a holeshot...gap the field (like villopoto does) in the first 15 minutes then cruise..... but I am waiting for the gate to drop

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elliott13579 wrote: 1:16pm May 16, 2012

JS
RD
JG
JW
NI
AS
JB

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FroLives wrote: 1:47pm May 16, 2012

The 800 is hauling ass right now. If he can not get too excited and mash himself in practice I see him on the box. Not sure what we will get from the 7. Will he keep racing if he gets smoked? Will he win by 50 seconds? I predict it's gonna be a long hot summer, and Dungey is real tough, real consistent, and real fast. He won't let the 7 get comfy out there. Constant pressure = mistakes.

Lites: If Dean's shoulder can hold, it's gonna be tough to get that 1 plate from him.

GO DEANO!

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Mr_Mx wrote: 2:02pm May 16, 2012

Wilson is done outdoors is a waste just get the thing fixed now, or is it just a James Stewart broken hand deal.I never seen a guy heal so fast come on

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BillC wrote: 2:21pm May 16, 2012

Ripdown I have heard you say that a few times now. My question is Who is going to run that speed? Last year RV & RD put over a min on 3rd place many times. I just don't see ANY of these guys making up that much time sence last year. Sure there will be races where RD and JS get bad strarts ECT but head to head I don't see anyone who can stay with them.... I HOPE I am wrong but don't think so.

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wrote: 2:49pm May 16, 2012

TR is a strong finisher, but i don't think he can match the pace right out of the gate and could be the 3rd place guy but he will have to pass a few to get there.
MA800 great hole shot-er, but can he get one on a nonfactory ride? No disrespect to his team.
3rd thru 6th = WH,TR, AS, MA

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shibibly wrote: 3:14pm May 16, 2012

If I were to put money on who I think would win the title right now, I would put it on Dungey. With Stewart there are too many unknowns, we don't know if the Suzuki is going to fix his problem, we don't know if his fitness is up to par and we don't know how consistent he can be. We basically know he will be fast. With Dungey we know he's fit, we know he's consistent, I'm sure he's confident after winning Vegas by checking out and he's always going to be there no matter what. The only question is if the KTM is good Outdoors, which if we go off of the GP's, it sure is a good bike.

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shibibly wrote: 3:16pm May 16, 2012

@Faceman - All of your posts talking about someone being injured, or talking about how much money you were making when you were 16. I think you should just leave...

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carlsbad wrote: 3:39pm May 16, 2012

I think Dungey & Stewart's mentality will be "go for the wins at the drop of the first gate". I see some of the others sorting themselves out rather gingerly.

Guys like Hahn & Rattray don't want to wad themselves right away with the opportunities they have on the line. A solid, injury-free season will pay big dividends for those guys so, I'm thinking top 5-7 for Ratters & Hahn.

There are others (#800 for example) that have nothing to lose and will be "Hammer down!" from the first gate drop.

My prediction is all of the racers will make it through (at least) the first round injury-free.......hope, hope, hope.

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Deadmau5 wrote: 4:36pm May 16, 2012

Thats a funny one.

shibibly

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Deadmau5 wrote: 4:46pm May 16, 2012

M.r Socko eats shiliblies for breakfast !!!!!!!!

Hangtown 450's

1. Orange

2. Yellow

3. Green

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VISTAJIM wrote: 7:42pm May 16, 2012

According to Deadmau 5 , Short will only beat Weimer if Stewart crashes?

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Deadmau5 wrote: 7:58pm May 16, 2012

@ VistaJim
Thats what socko says GOOD READ!!!

Hey VistaJim you remember this guy !!!! My dad used to drag with him

http://www.headerflames.com/jungle/
Maybe before your time ......

http://www.headerflames.com/jungle/

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davidl wrote: 9:05pm May 16, 2012

I will be suprised if Ratray places less than third, I will not be suprised if he does even better. He consistantly put in identacal lap times as the second tier 450 racers and that was on a 250, I really expect him to be halfway between RD and Milsaps and gang. By end of season better, I am ready for sat !!!

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RCRDDW wrote: 10:55pm May 16, 2012

The Styla might be the only competition for RD5 by mid season....

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VISTAJIM wrote: 12:26am May 17, 2012

Yeah, I remember Jungle Jim.I built a Revell model of that car back in the day.

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