Bench Racing Ammo: First Repeat Winner of the Season
Wednesday, February 1, 2012 | 3:45 PM
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PrintA few weeks back, we switched on the Racer X Bench Racing Ammo supercomputer and tried to find a link between winning AMA Supercross round one and winning the AMA Supercross Championship.
The computer couldn't find a connection. Since 1999, only five times has the opening-round winner gone on to win the championship, which is just five out of 13.
The next week we focused on something else, the round three winner. We found that over the last 13 years, the round three winner has gone on to win the title ten times. That means round three carries double odds of significance over round two.
Now the Monster Energy Supercross Championship is buzzing with four winners in the first four races. As much as we'd like to see a new face on top to really mix things up, odds are we're going to see a repeat winner for the first time on Saturday night. Does that mean much in the road to a title? Let's fire up the computer and get inside the numbers!
Here are the stats from the last twenty years:
Year: First with 2 Wins/Champion
1992 Damon Bradshaw/Jeff Stanton
1993 Jeremy McGrath/Jeremy McGrath
1994 Jeremy McGrath/Jeremy McGrath
1995 Jeremy McGrath/Jeremy McGrath
1996 Jeremy McGrath/Jeremy McGrath
1997 Doug Henry/Jeff Emig
1998 Ezra Lusk/Jeremy McGrath
1999 Ezra Lusk/Jeremy McGrath
2000 Jeremy McGrath/Jeremy McGrath
2001 Jeremy McGrath/Ricky Carmichael
Who will be the first to grab their second win of 2012: Reed, Stewart, Villopoto (pictured above) or Dungey?
Photo: Garth Milan
2002 David Vuillemin/Ricky Carmichael
2003 Ricky Carmichael/Ricky Carmichael
2004 Chad Reed/Chad Reed
2005 Ricky Carmichael/Ricky Carmichael
2006 Ricky Carmichael/Ricky Carmichael
2007 James Stewart/James Stewart
2008 Chad Reed/Chad Reed
2009 James Stewart/James Stewart
2010 Ryan Dungey/Ryan Dungey
2011 Ryan Villopoto/Ryan Villopoto
In 14 of the last 20 years, the first rider to win two races has gone on to win the championship. That's 70 percent, which really isn't all that impressive. More impressive is more recent history. In the same 13 year span in which we tracked the round one and round three winners, we see the same stat as the round three winner: 10 of the last 13 seasons, the first rider to two wins went on to win the championship. And even more remarkable, the first rider to two wins has won the title for the last NINE years.
Will history repeat itself or will the streak be broken? We'll learn one part soon, and the other in May.
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Things are lookin good for Chad Reed according to this writeup.
Since most everyone agrees that this is probably the first time in a long time that there have been 4 legitimate contenders.......all these stats while interesting are also pretty much irrelevant....IMO
This could very well end up being a championship won by podiums not so much wins....pretty cool!
My thought exactly Maniacs, old Speedy Reedy will wear the crown. I know it is only 4 races, but Skippy looking pretty good so far. So being that Chad is going to be 30, he gives the rest of us here at the Shady Grove Rest Home something to look forward to. lol
@ ripdown agreed
Yep those stats don't mean squat. Even if holds true this year I bet the championship still goes to the last round. Weege knows that he's just trying to earn his meager RacerX paycheck and stir the pot.
@ BobTheBuilder, or,, Weege could just be stating facts ......
stats don't mean anything...but they do track patterns. And for us guys who spend all day on ESPN during college football season checking stats...this is pretty cool.
unfortunately this title WILL be about how finishes in 2nd and 3rd the most times this year, which probably won't be the fastest guy each week...looks good for CR and RD
JS and RV might exchange wins/crashes...difference might be RV's ability to blitz towards the front...JS has it, just needs to get it out next time he falls down...
The implied trivia question would be:
Who is the last rider to be the first repeat-winner of the season, but not go onto win the championship?
David Vuillemin
Ouch -sorry Cobra
If you're right Ripdown, Dungey stands a very good chance of being there at the end. Even with two mechanicals last year, the guy was in contention for titles. I don't ever think we'll see the aggression (or recklessness) that some other racers display, and some may want to see from Dungey, but with all this parity, unless someone goes on a winning spree, I think it's really going to be a case of consistent podium results and winning the championship at their 'bad' races.
for another interesting stat, only one another time (if i didn't make a mistake) that 4 different riders on 4 different brand had won the four first round of the AMA SX, It was in1976
March 6: Daytona Beach: Tony DiStefano - Suzuki
March 12: Houston: - Jim Weinert - Kawasaki
March 19: Dallas: Jim Ellis - Can-Am
March 27: Pontiac: Marty Smith - Honda
Jim Ellis won the fifth round, and the title at the end of the season
RyanD
I'm an RV fan no doubt but I like Dungey a lot and if I had to place a wager I may just put my money on RD for the championship! I think things are going to get pretty crazy b/w the other three real soon......whether it's self implosion or aggressive racing there is gonna be some serious points lost and Dungey's consistency will be huge for him.
I'm looking into my glass ball and the winner for this sat night is slowly emerging, o my gosh it's,wait no, oh yes it's RRRR VVVVVVVV!!!!!!
What are the odds of someone other than 2,5,7 or 22 winning a race this year ??
davidl
focus a little more and tell us who rounds out the podium will ya?
UUhhh Oh gosh JS is right on RV's ass and 8 sec back came RD but the suprise is Brayton pulled forth just ahead of CR KW and Weimer !!! Shit I shouldn't of told you guys, it ruins the race !!!
No wonder everybody is only talking about the big 4. Just look who has been the supercross champs over the last 5 years. " The Big 4 " Reed, Stewart, Dunge, VilloPoto!.....Who has won the first 4 rounds so far in 2012? "The big 4"!......If you add Carmicheal into the equation (the big 5?) then their hasn't been a new Supercross champion since 2000, 11 years ago! And don't even let me bring McGrath's name in (big 6?) because we would be talking decades...................... Only one thing has changed this year.....Instead of the big 4 Japanese bike companies dominating... Now it's 3 Japanese and 1 Austrian company..... Looks like KTM has replaced Suzuki .................and finally, i really don't think we can include Canard in this elite company until sometime in the future. I wonder who will be the next rider in the years to come to break into this" elite" group? Barcia, Tomac,or are we going to have to wait for Cianciarulo?
Im gonna go ahead and call it right now. RV1 is gonna get it done. He has a lot to prove this weekend. Anyone wants to bet against me for some money?
You can't count window out for a possible win.given the right night u never know.
Reed said he read the article about the third race winner, and it gave him some extra drive to get the win. Mabey he will read this article also and klick it up a gear again. Also he seems to win every 4 years, so this should be his year.
Consistency does win championships but that only goes to far. People tend to forget that you gotta get some wins. I like how people are counting stewart out and puitting all their hands in the RV1 basket. And alot of it is based off of bubbas 2011 season. How easilly we forget that he is the third winningest rider in sx history. How easilly we forget that bubba has a habit on going on race win streaks. Also I don't know everybodys definition of straight up is but. Only chad reed has beat bubba straight up in my opinion. A straight win to me is what we saw in oakland. Just because you can catch a rider doesn't mean you can pass him. Bubba know what it takes to win races. Ex. phoenix 09, anaheim 2, 09, anaheim 1 2010. The only real contenders I see for this championship are villi and bubba. RD and chad stay in their comfort zone. They will be there at the end based off that but to me aren't real contenders. Once vill learns to harness the speed that he's picked during the off season and if bubba get's comfortable they are gonna be the ones who will be fighting for the plate, RD and Cr will win if bubba and villi have problems. CR still hasn't proven that he could win a championship with healthy top contenders
MX4lyfe,
Not sure what you definition of being a "contender" is. Please explain. Considering Reed missed the championship by 4 points last year, and RD missed it by 10 points which included a race where he lost up to 25 points through a mechanical. Take into account that RD and CR have both won a race this year and are tied for the lead in points. Wins are great, and what every rider is going for, but any rider will tell you its being consistant and staying healthy that are more important. Would love to hear your "insight" on what being a contender means.
"Straight up" means that you were both on the starting gate at the same time PERIOD!
As far as being consistent goes, it is CR and RD all the way!
@ MX4lyfe..........Bubba is also just as capable of going on a crash streak. His results the past few years have suffered and RV is rock solid all around and uses his head. He won everything last year, that's why he is favoured among the masses. It is JS right now who has to prove he still has it, has changed his riding habits for the better, and still wants it as bad as the new wave of riders. Every race is straight up, if's, and's, and but's don't have a place in MX. At the end of a series the best guy is holding the plate.
Yes history !!!!! It all started in 1962 with the first AMA OFF ROAD NATIONAL ENDURO CHAMPIONSHIP and yes they where on 4-strokes . Thats where we came from and it was the consistency of the Bill Baird that took his Triumph T 100c to Victory . 50 years ago and its still the name of the game "CONSISTENCY" .Reed & Dungy maybe have the patience and reed definately the experience but Roger D the ole fox .
Step-Up Racers and Honor the legendary 50 year ago first CHAMP at Daytona !
And if you really want to go back to riding in the dirt, I think the first Hill Climb competitions were in the the 1910s or 1920s.
@ MX Bob , Right you , However The FIRST AMA NATIONAL OFFROAD CHAMPIONSHIP was 1962 ! I believe ! I have only been wrong 3 times so far today ! I ask again CMON riders & Feld show so much deserved gratitude and honor a guy that made no $ and did it for the love and camradarie traveling with his family and friends , when the race was over they all ate together with the future kids of mx , hauling their bike on the bumper of the station wagon aka big rig !
RV and JS are the only contenders? RD and CR ride in their comfort zone to prolong their career. CR has just as many titles as JS, but has less injuries. How many times have you seen Dungey wad himself up and be out for a season? Oh yeah, JS is 4th in points behind 2 other non-contenders in case you have not noticed! You got to be there to win, being fastest in qualifying does not make a champion.
@RETARDCROSS
uh, have you seen RV crash lately? you say he is 'rock solid' and 'uses his head'...hmmm...he jumped off the track a few weeks ago...he will crash again...but so will JS no doubt...the difference will be who can have the lesser get off...
i will say that RV has incredible make-up speed when he does go down...
@ halfe316..........I'm speaking in generalities a little bit, look at RV's results from the past year, and he is only 2 points off the lead in 3rd overall currently. They all crash, but JS takes that to another level typically. History backs this 100% and I'm still puzzled how JS does not get hurt more often than he does considering he has the most frequent violent crashes I'd be willing to say.You'd also be foolish to say RV doesn't use his head, his mishaps this year have been very minor and as a whole his mental game is probably the best out of anyone's, Reed is pretty savvy too. At this point I'd say those two are most solid with their big picture overall packages right now. Dungey looks great as well and I think he'll have more as he gets more time on the Katoom. I root for Dungey but his lack of aggression hurts him. As an RV fan it sucks that he didn't perform last weekend and has had his troubles, but it is what it is, that's racing. They will all shine and have their nights. But if it came time to wager the house based on overall speed, consistency, and smarts I think most people will side with RV when it comes time to pull the trigger.
All 4 of them have their STRONG points- that why none of us are sure who will be the champ.
If you ranked 'the big four' on aggression and then consistency, the lists would likely be in reverse order of each other. Aggression often increases the odds of crashing, and that's where consistency might pay off. I agree that RV has to be the favorite right now, but it's always a fine line between success and failure for those who are more prone to throwing caution to the wind. Anything can happen. And THAT is a beautiful thing.
I'm with Retardcross because to me it looks like RV has the whole package. He's aggressive he has good corner speed, good through the whoops, can do the rhythm sections good and has a good mental game. He knows what needs to be done as does all of the title contenders but I am a RV fan so this is probably biased but I have to say everyone is looking like they can take the title so it's great to be a fan and I can't wait till Sunday! (Not for the superbowl....)