Racer X ReduX: Oakland
Tuesday, January 31, 2012 | 5:15 PM
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PrintHere’s something I wrote last August:
Sometimes we break it down with a simple word—speed—which is essentially the complete work of a racer. Speed may be one thing, but it requires a multitude of things—natural talent, desire, bike and bike setup, mental focus, strength, fitness, etc—to be complete. We know that speed, in motocross terms, isn’t just measured on a radar gun. Neither is being “fast.” It’s something that carries over week-to-week. You don’t see someone be 40th fastest one week and fastest the next. Normally. In the old era of MC, RC, and Bubba, you knew that if these guys were the fastest one weekend, they were probably going to be the fastest the next weekend.
And, really, not just with MC, RC and Bubba. When I first became a fan of this sport as a kid, it didn’t take me long to figure out that Rick Johnson was going to be the man to beat each time he lined up. A generation before that, I think Bob Hannah was the same way.
So we have become programmed to think that way. See it once, you’ll see it again the next week. It’s this usual pattern that makes this 2011 season so darned hard to understand. It’s not following the pattern!
So now here comes 2012, and here comes the same pattern as last year! The stats help prove how crazy this season has been—in these circles, you’re going to hear the term “four winners in the first four races” so often this week that you’ll think the Superbowl isn’t getting enough hype.
While Stewart and Villopoto have grabbed the headlines, Dungey has grabbed a share of the points lead alongside Chad Reed.
Photo: Andrew Fredrickson
And four winners in four races is a pretty crazy stat. This last happened in 1976, when the series was very much in its infancy. How long ago was 1976? Put it this way: one of the four brands to win in ’76 was a Can-Am.
But even that’s not really the point. The stat may be impressive, but like a Ryan Dungey interview, it doesn’t tell you enough. The impressive thing is not who wins the races this year, but how they won them.
Through these four races, Villopoto, Dungey, Reed and Stewart have swapped not only wins and points leads, but also the coveted “who is faster” card. I’ll give you an example: At Anaheim 1, Dungey caught Reed not once but twice. He challenged Reed early, fell, then came back and nearly got him again at the finish. Then Dungey won Phoenix while Reed struggled to fifth. At that point you’d think Dungey had Reed covered. But the very next week at Dodgers Stadium, Dungey tucked in behind Reed at the halfway mark, and Reed just walked away.
Okay, okay, we should know better than to judge things based on two races. But through the years of 2006—2009, we were consistently watching Stewart go just a little faster than Reed in every practice, every heat and every main. We have become conditioned to think things won’t change, no matter how many variables each week produces. As proof, keep in mind that we’ve only seen four winners in four races two times ever. This is not a sport where we expect parity!
But we know The Dunge and The Chad will be close. Reed needs to get it over with and just put the “Hi, Ryan” butt patch on his pants. A bigger shakeup is Ryan Villopoto, who sure seemed like the fastest/baddest/strongest/meanest machine out there after the first few races. Villo did come from last to pass Reed and score a podium in Phoenix, right? Surely once he started avoiding the early-race troubles, he’d prove to be the man again.
Can Villopoto find the winning formula again and close the gap on Dungey and Reed at A2?
Photo: Andrew Fredrickson
But he had his shot in Oakland, and couldn’t deliver. Reed and Stewart walked away from him….wait, James “freaking” Stewart? Where did this come from? A week ago Stewart rumors ran the gamut from, “He’s outta’ shape” to “He doesn’t have it anymore,” but they did not include “He will beat Reed and Villopoto straight up next week.”
But he did. Villopoto even had him on missile lock in the heat race, seeming to further drive the point home about who was the new fastest man on the...you know. But Stewart later explained that he tried the wrong setup in his heat race, but got the right one in the main event. That statement, folks, sums up how close these guys are. A few suspension clicks one way or another, a good choice on a tire or even a bad line choice during the main can change everything. I’m sure in Carmichael’s prime he made the wrong set up choice at times, but you never knew because he won anyway. And back when Stewart seemingly packed “seven tenths per lap quicker than anyone else” in his gear bag, he probably gambled wrong at times, too, but you didn’t notice because he was still fastest rider out there.
But today, these boys are closely matched. I am not at all pointing holes in the Villopoto program—just because Reed and Stew got the better of RV this time does not mean RV can’t come right back and blow everyone out this weekend. Remember that last year in Atlanta, Stewart and Reed seemed to regain their solitary spots at the top, but only a few weeks later Villopoto was sitting on a win streak and a big points lead. Things change quickly when the pack is this close.
Reed is hoping to walk away from A2 with sole possession of the points lead.
Photo: Andrew Fredrickson
This isn’t just the case for the top four riders. Just two weeks ago, Jake Weimer was actually threatening to leap up to the lead pack. In L.A., he battled with Reed (and Stewart, you may have noticed). But things didn’t go Weimer’s way in Oakland. Andrew Short ended up with the soon-to-be-coveted Best of the Rest award by taking fifth in Oakland, with Kevin Windham not far behind. Brett Metcalfe was the fifth-place guy in L.A. And Justin Brayton was fourth at Anaheim 1 but has since gone 14-DNQ-9. Throughout the entire top ten, we’re seeing a ridiculous level of parity, and while the lead four have broken away, things are no easier to predict behind them. Subtle differences are making a massive impact in the results column.
The good news about the front pack is, the closer the boys have gotten on setup, the closer they have gotten on the track. It’s pretty clear now that Villopoto and his Monster Energy Kawasaki team were pretty much on their game by Anaheim 1, while guys like Reed and Stewart needed a few weekends to find their window. Now that they are there, things seem to be pretty close. It may just come down to subtle differences in starts, set up and luck from here on out—and even with last year in the rear view, we’re just not used to seeing things that close up front.
Stewart is looking to grab back-to-back wins to further cut into his points deficit.
Photo: Andrew Fredrickson
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It's a good time to be a moto fan! Soooooo many years of just one man show, i tuned in just to see if anyone would step up and sneak in a win. Not anymore, and by the looks of the lites classes, well i think 2011 season is a sign of the times!
Hope this trend stays, so much more fun! I really hope the top 4 can battle in outdoors too!
Great artical Jason!!!
we need you in the booth man!!
"Like a Ryan Dungey interview....."
The only thing I'd add is Dungey caught Reed at A1 after he fell, and then Reed pulled away again, but the focus of the article rings true. Little things can make all the difference between blowing people out and having trouble keeping up. And in this day and age, people put so much emphasis on what was meaning anything about what is or what will be. 6 weeks ago Giants fans were looking to fire their head coach and the team was in the midst of losing 5 games in a row sitting at 7-7. This week they may be winning the Superbowl. Things are still simmering below a full boil in SX. Isn't it RC that always says the series begins at Daytona? I think things go the way of last year with RV and Stewart winning the majority of what's left of the 13 races.
Its one thing to have multiple winners early, but another thing to have this many "special" (not short bus special) riders at one time racing AND winning.
Add in Bracia, Wilson and (I think) Tomac in the next 3-5 years on 450s, and HOPEFULLY Canard
Its amazing to me, that at almost every round, we have these top four guys with in a half a second per lap and right behind them, 4-5 more guys within the same second! The field is, as a whole, faster than at any time I can remember. The future looks even brighter, as what happens, in a few years when Barcia, Wilson, Tomac join this group? Great time to be a fan!!!!!
@B-KR Aren't you the one who said that I would learn the truth about RV? Yep, I'm pretty sure that you and BillC were saying that if RV got a decent start, the rest of the pack would not have a chance. Nothing against RV; he is without a doubt one of the -- if not the -- fastest rider out there. But I have to say, perhaps you underrated the other riders too much and overrated RV more than is actually the case?
By the way, we had a discussion about laptimes and coming through the pack, and you mentioned that if Dungey had a bad start that his laptimes would suffer. Well, at Oakland, Dungey had a bad start and his laptimes were pretty close to RV's and Stewart who were running at the front of the pack. Funny how those things come back to bite you, huh?
It's cool and more fun & exciting, because you don't know who's going to win. I saw several Nationals and SX races where it was almost always going to be RC or JBS... and those races were great too, but this is better. And Lites - whether SX or MX - is almost always like that (lots of great/fast riders).
Can't wait for this weekend,this is another great season. Can't wait for live races again also. I was looking at twitter, what's up with Father Canard,I understand he's religious but he's off his rocker. Just saying :D
I think the one thing to look at is the fact that Dungey, Villipoto and Reed seem to be pretty much set up and are fine tuning things. Stewart still seems to be getting the JGR Yamaha into an acceptable state for him, and he's still hanging with the other 3. To me this would mean he still has the chance to nail the set-up and then gain even more speed on the rest. I like all of these guys, and I think the way they have been racing each other clean, shows a lot of respect towards each other. Now thats probably going to change, but it seems like none of them want to start it. Great season so far!
Great article!!. Good perspective on the season so far. You are right, no one can predict who will win this week. Just when you think a rider will carry some momentum everything changes again. I watched oakland again and focused on Villo. i started noticing him looking uncomfortable and jumping everything with the front wheel high and choosing fast outside lines that made no time up on the slower inside line choices of Reed and Stew. i liked the track design when two lines carry different speeds and end up the same time.
Alot of pressure for top 4 guys. I noticed (Villo especially) these guys do not want to go down or finish outside the top 4 and are riding conservative to hold points. A DNF will most certainly be a disaster to one of the big 4. You would have to count on all 3 sharing the same luck at one point to have any shot at the title. The guy with the best starts and fewest mistakes gets it. Hope all 4 have no ,mistakes and trade wins all the way to VEGAS!!
Like I've always said, RV, JS, RV, JS, RV, JS, is clearly faster :)
Good read, 1976 I did not know it had been that long,cool stat.Learn something new every day.
I dont comment much but this is gonna b one hellavuh season!! BUBBA THE BEAST is my man but RV has that KX450 dialed in,he can take any line or create a new 1 and haul ass,WOW!!!!
Where are B-KR and BillC? Seems they only show up when RV wins or comes from behind and get's a top five finish.
Seriously though, this was a GREAT article by Weege. Well done.
I watched the 450's again today and I know this is off the subject for this article but I wanted to congratulate the folks at CBS on doing a stellar broadcast. I believe they have payed attention to the comments people have expressed and really put a show together that was outstanding. I would also like to thank Ricky,Ralph, Jeff and Erin for their contributions. You guys and gal are truly sincere about your passion for the good of the sport.
I was riveted to the action for the first 10 laps that I didn't want to look at the ticker tape at the top for the positions of the rest of the racers. It looks like Stewart is more patient and that is lethal for the competition. Reed is a bad dude with plenty still in the tank. Villopoto is a beast that devours and Dungey is the consummate pro and class act that refuses give in. The rest of the top ten comprise of a bunch that hang it out like no bodies business. The rest of the field can proudly hold their head up because they are critical part of the greatest show in motorsports.
I am very grateful for everyone that allows this sport to exist because without it my life might take mundane to a new level. Ha Ha
Anyone can have a race not where things are not clicking (Poto) I believe he is the fastest man on the track most nights but clearly was uncomfortable mid way through the race. Stewarts riding looked really good in the main. People saying Stewies bike is his problem is crap! I think his fitness is/was in question as he races himself into shape. RD is on completely new equipment. I don't expect him to win the title this year but he won't be far from it at seasons end. Reed may come alive as well. This season is great and you can't count anyone out. It may come down to who can gain and guard the points best.
@MotoOn
I agree with your statement that JGR and James are just now getting the bike dialed in, making James a threat to go faster in the future.
I also think the same could be said for Dungey, as he has only been riding the new bike for a few months.I look for the guys at the KTM camp to find some new setup secrets with their new bike that could unleash a beast hat could turn the late season into a Stewart, Dungey battle for the 2012 title.
That's just one possible outcome that comes to mind, that is what seems to be making this supercross season so fun to watch. I just hope all the riders can finish the season injury free and we get to keep seeing these great races.
This is RV's first go on the all new KX in supercross too.......all of them are used to their bikes, they have hours and hours on them...... I don't think any of them ever stop tinkering and looking for better settings. Reed has been switching up tires regularly. You could make the argument that Dungey is getting the same results as he did last year on the Suzuki.....he already matched his win total from last year. Generally on or around the podium will be the norm for him. And they may just be enough for a Championship.
Just an opinion......
Jason leave picking on Dungey's interview skills to Mattes. That crap brings you down a notch. There's nobody close to your creativeness on your moto thoughts and writing. Thanks for all you do.
J Sloan, if you care to watch the race again go ahead and check out where RV was off the start. I wouldn't call that a good start. I counted him 12th through the first turn. He was about 8th when Emig proclaimed that he was in 6th. After 3 laps he was still 5th behind Shorty. Anyway, Stewart's actual start wasn't much better and he made the most of it. The truth about RV hasn't changed unless you now think that one race where he clearly backed down after a few close calls means he is destined to finish in 4th every week (because we all know Dungey will mop the floor with him as well). For the most part though, the last round of arguing with your thoughts on laptimes in the back of the pack hurt my head. Check out how Dungey did trying to just come from 10th on the first lap, let alone 18th. Dungey didn't get by Short until lap 12 and then only put 4 seconds on him in the last 8 laps.
Sloany-- Haha I didn't read the 2nd half of your first post. So you are looking at Dungey's laptimes coming from 10th and you don't see any correlation to how they were affected? Geez you are blind I guess. So your contention is that if Dungey and RV both started 1st and 2nd then RV would still be 8 seconds ahead? I would, but I don't think you would. So the 8 second gap in no way has any correlation to having to pass a bunch of guys that RV didn't? You really do not make much sense with any of your posts. The very fact that Dungey was 8 seconds behind RV points to everyone's (but you) thinking that fighting through slower riders kills your laptimes. Of course, passing 6 riders is easier than passing 13 or 14. Dungey only passed 4 more guys than RV did over the last 19 laps. Then to make matters worse, you proclaim that something came back and bit me? You sound foolish.
I am pretty sure JGR , And James , have an agreement, no more Checkers or Wreckers , you can tell allready by the way he is riding , they want him healthy for the future , It took a couple of years for the rest to get up to his speed , Some of them are close , most are not , Next 450 star..... Barcia !
JS came fro 5th at the start to 1st
CR came from 1st to 2nd
RV 12th to 3rd
RD 15th to 4th
GO RV and get better starts
"...but like a Ryan Dungey interview, it doesn’t tell you enough" Made me laugh out LOUD Thanks Jason!
and clutchit, I believe that the bigger point is that Dungey is not BAD at interviews, It's that he purposefully withholds information with the intent of maintaining a level seriousness and professionalism in addition to trying to be loyal and faithful to his sponsors. This makes his interviews the way they are because you can see him second guessing everything before he says anything. I respect him as a racer and a person and he is free to interview how he wants. With that said, I would prefer to actually learn something about what happened in the race, with their bikes, or have the interviewee actually answer the question and tell it like it is. So he is not "BAD" at interviews, he just chooses to be secretive.
Starts. It's going to come down to good starts. Barring mistakes I dint see any rider outside the top 10 "after the first lap" winning the race this year. They are just too close.
Btw, great article Weege!
@B-KR How many times am I going to have to point out where you have been wrong? Look at the laptchart, and stop fooling with numbers to make your point. The lapchart proves -- contrary to your claims -- that RV was in 5th by lap one, and third by lap four. According to you, with a start like that, RV would lay waste to Reed and Stewart. The only problem is that RV did not lay waste to Reed or Stewart, he stayed behind them. I believe that you even made reference to Reed's weight gain.
Dungey had similiar laptimes to the leaders and he was in the pack...and you claimed he would not be able to do that if he was back in the pack. You're wrong...again.
The only one who looks foolish is you when you when you keep your nonsense up and the facts show that you are demonstrably wrong.
Give it up already! You're debating something as set in stone as the sky being blue. Somehow Dungey lost a bunch of time to the leaders and it didn't happen due to anything other than him being held up by slower riders, even if for a quarter of a second here or there. I guess you're looking for 2 or 3 second gaps. Well, when almost half the field qualifies on the same second you have to realize that isn't going to happen. You still are contending that being stuck behind all these slower riders has zero effect on a faster rider's lap times. Have you ever raced? Either you haven't, or pulled every holeshot, or were the slowest rider on the track and therefore could not be held up. Many here have experienced this (common sense) phenomena first hand and don't need to decipher lap charts to prove it true. Even if you never experienced it, any half-wit could use logic to see it to be the case. With that, this is the last I will speak of the subject. The sky is blue, man!