Racer X ReduX: Phoenix
Tuesday, January 17, 2012 | 4:50 PM
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Two years ago at the Phoenix supercross, Ryan Dungey captured his first career AMA SX win, with Ryan Villopoto and Josh Hill rounding out the podium. That ’10 PHX SX was headlined as much by Dungey’s great night as the terrible ones for perennial favorites James Stewart and Chad Reed. Stewart crashed in his heat race and broke his wrist, then he and Reed collided in the main event, sending Reed to the sidelines with a broken hand. One night produced double injuries for Reed and Stewart, while three relative newcomers swept the podium. Guards don’t change much more clearly than that.
To be fair, Reed and Stewart weren’t exactly done after that, as both have returned to get more wins. But the numbers don’t lie. In the two previous seasons (2008, 2009), Reed and Stewart swept the four major AMA Supercross and Motocross titles (Stewart won the 2008 AMA Motocross and 2009 AMA Supercross Championships, Reed won the 2008 AMA Supercross and 2009 AMA Motocross Championships). They won 40 of 58 races in that two year stretch, about 70 percent, which is amazing when you consider Reed didn’t race outdoors at all in 2008, Stewart didn’t race outdoors at all in 2009, and Stewart missed most of the ’08 SX tour with an injury. And they still won 70 percent of the time!
Villopoto is ushering in a new regime to stand atop the supercross world.
Photo: Simon Cudby
But the last two seasons, Dungey and Villopoto have swept the championships. They have combined for 37 of 58 wins, which means they have come awfully close to matching the win percentage of Stewart/Reed ’08 and ’09, and they did it while racing against Reed and Stewart at times.
I’m not suggesting the end is here for Stewart and Reed. There’s just too much credibility and respect for their abilities to declare them done, and seeing either (or both) reel off some wins soon won’t be a surprise. But the numbers are starting to bear out that the guard has changed—and we’re not even taking into account that the Ryans have won both races thus far in 2012. What’s happening is the Ryans are already great, and they keep getting better.
Villopoto may have won both titles last year, but he is dangerous on a whole different level so far this year. His Anaheim 1 ride was lethal. He won A1 in 2011, but you could have argued at that race that Stewart was the fastest rider that night, but just suffered a bad start. But last weekend, there was no doubt—RV was the man, pure and simple, and I think he could have won the race even if he had started pretty far back. And almost to prove that point, he logged an unbelievable come-from-behind ride at Phoenix. He slashed through the field to go from last to third, and he ate up Reed in the process. He may have caught Stewart, too, but we’ll never know since Stewart went down. Still, RV’s third was just as impressive as his win at Anaheim, and I think he’s another notch better than he was in 2011, and oh by the way, he won the championship that year.
And Dungey? Well, won the race! I never expected this KTM deal to come together this quickly, but Dungey already seems on at least the level he was last year, and surely there’s more to come since that bike and program are so new. I got some good insight from the KTM folks over the weekend regarding how they were able to develop it so quickly. As far back as last spring, the team was sending notes and drawings back to Austria to design the exact 450 they wanted, using knowledge gained from the 350s and 450s they raced with Andrew Short and Mike Alessi. You would think this is standard protocol for every brand, but in reality there’s often little connection between production development and racing development at some companies. But the connection was direct, and this KTM 450 was pretty much built around exactly what DeCoster and company ordered. The good news for them is that it’s, ahem, ready to race from the get go. The bad news? Well, if you’re expecting massive improvement from here, both Dungey and DeCoster told me they’re pretty much where they want to be. This isn’t as much of a work in progress as you would expect, and from here on out they’ll just be doing the same fine-tuning everyone else is. But you’ve still got to imagine they can keep moving onward and upward.
What do RD and Rd has left up their sleeve?
Photo: Simon Cudby
And DeCoster does feel the Phoenix win helps in one way.
“Until you get that win, no matter how good you feel, there’s always that little bit of doubt until you get that win,” said The Man after the race (The Race?) “Maybe there was that little bit of doubt there for Ryan’s confidence to know the bike was capable of winning a supercross.”
Of course Dungey never let on that there were any doubts at all (he never lets on to anything). He just rides and works, press play and repeat. Now, was he as fast as Villopoto? Would he have won if Villopoto had not crashed? Who cares? He won, that’s a huge accomplishment for Dungey and the team. We’ll have 15 more races to hash everything else out.
Also Dungey got the holeshot and man that must have felt good. He really had his starts dialed in his 2010 championship season, but he just couldn’t seem to get them last year (in fact, he got one holeshot, in Toronto, and that’s the race he won. Coincidence? I think not). Last year’s field was so close that starting a few positions further up could have changed everything. Knowing how frustrating it must have been for Dungey to routinely start behind his main competitors last year, and knowing how many times he has been stuck behind Chad Reed unable to make a pass, he must have been thrilled to round turn one Saturday with a clean track ahead of him.While I’m going on about new blood and new machines and changing guards, etc., we’ve finally got Jake Weimer showing what he can do on a 450 as well. Listen folks, it’s easy to write columns saying everyone is great all the time. This way you’ll never look bad when a rider has a breakthrough race. But that’s too easy, and I write what I think, so I’ll readily admit I did not see these rides coming from Jake this year. As evidence, I present the 2011 season, which delivered nothing of note for Jake. Not outdoors, not at the Monster Energy Cup, not at Bercy. I just didn’t see that flash of brilliance that said, “This dude is on it, he just has not had it come together yet.” And after the race, Jake admitted to me that even he was having a tough time believing this was coming after a tough 2011. He credits his team for never getting down on him. Now it’s starting to come around, and fast. Seriously, Jake’s ride on Saturday (and his come-from-behind fifth at Anaheim) showed me that he could do this at any time, not just in a race where Villopoto and Stewart go down. I think he’s the real deal.
Reed (front) and Stewart (rear) are far from done.
Photo: Simon Cudby
It’s too early to declare Reed and Stewart over and done. Reed didn’t have a good night by his standards (rare is the night where Reed doesn’t crash but also doesn’t land on the podium). And I left the building thinking Stewart was really in trouble this year, which prompted me to write this column. But after watching the race back on TV, I saw hints of the old James Stewart, the one who, at times, is just so darned fast that no one can do anything with him. And Reed is smart, he’ll figure out a way. But Villopoto just showed he could salvage a strong result even when disaster strikes. It’s early in the season, yes, way, way early, but it’s not too early to say Villopoto looks to have the total package.
And Trey Canard was back and rode well considering how little supercross prep time he has had. It wasn’t long ago that Canard and Weimer were battling in the Lites class (often with Dungey). And they all at one point had to chase Villopoto around. This is supposed to be the next group, and they’re here and they’re ready. In fact, the numbers say they’re not next—they’re now.
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Good article Jason. So stoked for LA!
josh hill didnt round out the podium...
i stand corrected, i misread the part where it said 2 years ago.
Why does that girl on the podium look demonized? She's taking that Monster thing a little too far.
RV is an ANIMAL!!!! Can't wait till Sunday. The not "LIVE" race is going to stink!!
good thing you caught your mistake joetarver, cause you know you would have been torn up in here. RV did good but RD had his number- no ifs ands or butts. thats the nice thing about racing. first one past the finish is the winner.
being a fan of the sport and its good to see changes in it,that being said if villopoto is as strong as he looks and dungey rides like hes capable of,imagine the racing we are in for,i mean Reeds gotta have a year probably two of top level racing left in him and stewart will get his game together sooner or later(unless he quits) Canard will race hard and look at the lites class riders that will take over in the long run....cant wait
dman581 I hope there is some good racing to come but RV looks real strong right now. He went by Reed like he was going backwards. Reed was stuck behind Metty for a long time RV ran them down Blew past them both and was gone. Reed took 3 or so more laps to finaly get by Metty. RV looked like a Man amung Boys out there.
What a telling night it was!!!
Dungey and KTM are winners! What a boost in confidence this will be for the whole team and at this level it is your biggest alli.
Wiemer, the quiet one, he has applied what aldon and RV has shown him, I think he will be a constant member of the top 6 and if any one stumbles, he will be there.
Villopoto, that is how you do damage control on a bad night, ride as hard and fast as you can thru the pack. This ride was perhaps more impressive than last weeks!
Windham, almost hung on for podium, but even he could not stop watching Poto's come from behind ride!
Going to be looking for the ole guard to make a return soon, Reed and Stewart have to much pride and speed to keep getting these results! Things are only getting started....
yea bill i agree RV looks very strong all im saying is there will be some parody in the sport.I really dont think Reed orStewart are going to be consistent enough to beat RVorRD to take the title from either of them.Villopoto is the fastest guy on the track when it counts.Dungey is mr.consistent,his speed is close to villo but he needs help,i think he is a lot like carmicheal in the fact that the outdoors are where he is the strongest,but he is very capable of winning another supercross championship,I dont think villopoto is the forgone conclusion
RV's on another level entirely, but Dungey looked surprisingly quick at Phoenix. Both Reed and Stewart are looking pretty lame so far. Crazy, considering they were both hyped to be race winners right off the bat.
There's several odd variables in the Stewart equation (bike, tires, fitness, illness, seat time, intimidation), but what the heck is Reed doing? You wouldn't think any of those things would apply to him. Short and Windham are both going as fast as him over 20 laps--how often does that happen without a crash from Reed? 7 & 22 need to step it up ASAP if this year's L.A. is to have any chance of matching 2011's.
I just rememebered about Reed's thumb. I hope that is the issue and it feels better soon.
I feel the accomplishments done by RV1 and Dungey is a greater one than Reed/Stewies since those 2 were there when RV/Dungey won thier titles. Those two have really come onto thier own the last couple of years. We are witnessing the changing of the guard for sure..
Oh yeah, Reed's thumb! Glad there's a good (possible) excuse.
Oh just wait... Stewart will finally get a win like 5 or 6 rounds in and burst into tears on the podium like he did last year when the ryans were kicking his ass. Drama Queen deluxe.
Reed? well id say age, fatherhood and Millville are in his head right now... the sore thumb is a possibility but if it is hes hiding it well.
totally agree BILL and bd.
and Whoops..
unfortunately bubba stewart is long gone a victim to his tv show,he still has plenty of speed but despite all his success he has lost his drive to win or crash trying
Awesome article. I don't think Reed has much going on other than a slow start to the series, he has had nothing but good things to say about his bike and team. And if he is dealing with a thumb issue good for him in just sucking it up and riding. The reality is probably the majority of the riders out there are constantly dealing with some sort of nagging injury or minor bodily setback, it's not worth making something minor known because they're all dealing with something at some point.
I don't understand the question marks around Stewart after only two rounds of racing. He crashed twice at A1 and was sick at the Phoenix round. despite being sick, he went out in one of the timed practice sessions and blitzed off a laptime almost a second faster than the next guy. He skipped the last practice saying that he was feeling worse, and he went out in the main and gathered some points. Stewart is certainly not in a position that he wants to be in, 17 points back from RV, but I would not make much out of it unless we see this pattern continue into the next couple of rounds.
Speed-wise, I think that if he is dialed in and stops crashing he will still be the fastest guy out there. Of course, there are doubters at this point and I understand that point is debatable, but the next few rounds will answer more questions about this season and the riders than the first two rounds have.
I don't think Reed prepared this year like he should have. Remember when he Tweeted his blisters from just getting back on the bike?; which was in November I think. He looks about 15-20 lbs. heavier to me as well. He still has the speed to run 2nd-3rd but he doesn't look as good as last year. Bubba's bike is all over the place. He looks no different from last year; like they just switched the graphics from San Manuel to JGR....although at this point he had a 3rd and a 1st already.... His problem is he has no idea how to evaluate the bike's needs.
Weimer might be up there for the long haul. Maybe he will be pushing his way into the big 5 and pushing someone else out......or maybe we'll see it become the big 6?
Could be Reed's thumb. If so, its the only injury in his career he has not advertised week in and week out. Remember the shoulder, ribs, etc...
Stewart will either get better or quit. He will not race for 6th place. He has never done it before, he does not know how to just suck it up and just race to eventually figure it out. It is either 1 or done.
After the first practice round pics from A1 I commented that Reed looked heavy. I don't think he is anywhere near the fitness he carried into the start of 2011.
This series is going to be a dogfight. RV showed amazing tenacity and speed at PHX to come back to 3rd, coupled with his dominance at A1 it is easy to sit back and say "RV will take the title easily". However, all it would have taken at PHX was the rider behind him to nail RV's bike and damage it to the point of DNF and all that stuff goes out the window. This series will be a hard fought one. I think even Weimer and K-dub could go into the last month still in contention. Even Short, as I think he will get better with more racing as he comes back from his injuries. I know, it sounds crazy but JS already has a 17 point hole, and some bad luck to Reed, RD, and RV can keep this series crazy close.
Great article, I feel for JS after winning as much as he did in the tiddlers and then started out well in the 450 class, it would be a tough pill to swallow when he slowly figures out that not only is he not doing as well the next gen is really good and getting better all the time . I would cry too if I won !
I feel that weimer, TC, will be as fast as CR within the next two races and then only improve. CR will have to improve and I think he will. Justin brayton is steadily getting better and is solid. Glad RD won one and this shoud help him greatly. RV and RD will have this group chasing them every weekend. I hope for better from JS but he has shown a fairly long string of consistancy the last three years that will be tough to change. I no longer feel he can rip off a string of wins. I feel that RV, RD, JW, TC, JB, is the new gathering storm with more coming next year.
Two races and two winners! Cannot wait for the next round! Rockin' the boat!
BK-R, thank you, you hit the nail on the head. Reed has a belly. I noticed he had a little baby fat going on one of the episodes of Moto, Inside the Outdoors. This was before the crash, the crash that would make anybody eat jelly donuts and soft serve Ice Cream for a couple of weeks.
I was at the race and saw him in the pits and then when I watched it a couple times on TV I thought the dude looked border line chubby for a racer Ala Nicco Izzi a couple years back. I am sure with his age, family and racing mettle he does not see the need to train like an animal anymore.
I say if you want to beat the beast you better train like the beast(S)!
The only thing that would make this season better would be a mentally healthy, motivated, refocused, in shape Jason Lawrence! where's J Law I wish he was here, something is missing.
Really Newman..... you think we need another felon in our sport? Grow up and get real about what's going on here. We left that idiot behind a couple of years ago.
Wake up fool.
Duc 996
Rv its the new rc did you see how that guy came from dead last to third? And he was closing the gap on weimer he is the Man i just want to see him starting with js7 in front of him and all the questions about the fastest Men on the planet will be answered youll see
Red54, I've been saying since November that I think Reed took a long break in the off-season, which he also did before 2010. I think he may even have made someTweets about adding some L-B's back around Thanksgiving. He stunk in 2010 (blamed the bike) and he doesn't look to be the same this year as last. People gave me crap when I said a Pro should not be off a bike long enough to get blisters when getting back on one, not if you plan to win a title at this level. Not while RV is busy with Aldon every day. He's still right there with the other heavyweights besides RV though (no pun intended). He should be back in shape around the half way point but that is going to be too little too late. I've been watching the races over and must say JS isn't that far off the pace. In both races he had horrible starts and was running up near the front few when he fell. Then it looks like he gives up and just rides it out. It will be interesting to see what happens if he gets a start. (still don't think he is up to running the RV pace)
J_Sloan I gota say after the Convo on the other thread I find it VERY funny to hear you say "Speed-wise, I think that if he is dialed in and stops crashing he will still be the fastest guy out there".... Thats really funny.
hamncheeze I would be SHOCKED if K-Dub and JW are in it with 4 rounds left. I would love to see 6 guys withing 20 points but just don't think so.
the profits of sx/mx..................
BillC.....different rules apply to different riders. It's just human nature I guess.
Profits?$$$ Prophets?
Good article, everyone's got alot of opinions that's good. But it's early in the season rider are going to get stronger and set up better. The bottom line is RV came into this series tuned perfectly. With that said I think there will be a few different winners (CR,JW,TC,JB,JS,) providing they all stay healthy. I'm not a big fan of Kawasaki but if RV is in the to 10 to 12 of the start he can pull of the win.
Plenty of good racing let so lets all sit back and enjoy it!
nice stretch whoops-blitzer.......Reed finished 2nd in the first race of the year but your intelligence tells you that he looks pretty lame so far this year ?.....i guess for you it's first place or nothing right ? why even show up and race if thats the standard....you actually sound pretty lame and you make it quite clear you have an issue with Reed and Stewart. we are only 2 races in and Poto has fallen several times and it going to fall many more times in the future races......this season is wide open and your take is lame as you would call it....!
Cool article... They are far from done, maybe done dominating but not "done"...I know 16 + other guys who would trade positions with Reed and Stewart any day of the week as far as ranking on the totum pole.... James obviously still has the speed and maybe for once in his career needs to step it up...After 2 races with subpar finishes (due to falls) it is hard to tell. RV is for sure the fastest guy out there right now...no doubt... all the " fastest man on the planet" arguments are lame.....its a nickname given to a 16yr old James Stewart over 10 years ago, when he was just that any day of the for 7+ years, crash or no crash, James was the fastest.....Now, things are changing and there is new blood...but James is obviously right there still and has had 2 bad races, but not as bad as last years "bad races".. So as mentioned above, 2 races in is not long enough to make any final conclusions.....Reed to me may have lost his inner drive...he spends a lot of time doing his team thing and other things that may take away his fire. I dont think he is really focused on titles, more so just being out there and pimping out his Two Two Motosports team...But he surely isnt "done" after a 2nd place at A1 and a 5th at PHX.... RV may be a half step above JS7, But he is two steps above the rest....And I think once JS7 gets a good start we'll see if he can hang or beat RV....Again, we have seen Reed step it up in his latter years....James just turned 26, so he can do it too....if he wants too...
You are right B-KR.. Glad you saw this thread too. I was going to copy/paste his post on the other thread for you to see. I am Still in shock over this post. LOL talk about a 180!!!
I like Profits!! LOL
sleestak.. RV has fallen several times?? WHEN??? WHERE??? I only rememeber one so far.
.On the Reed thing yes he got 2nd but looked very UNREED like doing it. RV Put 12+sec on him before he fell. Reed does not look that great so far to me either. He will pull it together but he has work to do for sure.
I just don't think JS has made any improvements from last year. JS missed all outdoor racing and sitting home didn't help his cause. RV & RD did make noticeable improvements & are going to get in his head again this year. Even if JS starts wining RV & RD always find some way to get on the box get points. 17 points behind is going to be hard to overcome when RV & RD are always on the box.
JS can over come 17 points, back in the day. But from what i have seen from JS so far, those days are over. Hope i am wrong. SX is more fun to watch when we have 6 guys to cheer for on any give night.
Ok so an overweight ex champ came in 2nd in first supercross race of the year. What does this tell you about where the sport is headed......?
Demon girl is the cutest.
some people on here are straight d bags.
@Billc and B-KR What is the discrepancy with me saying that speedwise, Stewart could still be the fastest guy out there?
@ b-kr yes the profits of sx/mx.....
Ditto J Sloan and KilloMoto.
Note that JS had the fastest lap of the whole racing night (Heat 1 at 51.599 sec). All the top 10 guys out there are not "push-overs" and can put up a good race fight.
J_Sloan go reread what you said in the other thread and if you still have questions I will be happy to help you out and I am sure B-KR will as well.
@BillC Please refresh my memory. I'm still not sure what the discrepancy is between my saying that James could still be the fastest guy out there if he had his bike dialed in, and between saying that the fastest rider isn't the only criteria for what makes the best rider? Help me out here.
Really Duc996......... I guess you didn't read the part about "mentally healthy" sorry if I don't see things the way you do. As exciting as this season is there's an edge missing, just used J Law as an example because he always had you sitting on the edge of your seat and was alway's black and white about the competition. I can assure you I am grown up.
Oh and take your bald ass tires back to the pavement you Tool.
JW this was a really great atricle!