Insight: What's On The Line
Wednesday, December 28, 2011 | 11:30 AM
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PrintAuthors: Jason Weigandt and Chase Stallo
Everyone is pumped during this time of year. Super pumped, even. We’re a week away from the Monster Energy Supercross opener, so at this point everyone can talk about their 2012 team/bike/training/technique/sponsor changes leaving them feeling and riding better than ever for the new year. But reality will hit in Anaheim.Even the best riders aren’t immune to bad seasons. Last season was dubbed “The Greatest Season Ever” because of the rare circumstance of contenders making it through most of the year healthy, staying on their game, and battling week after week. It doesn’t always work out so well. Look back no further than Chad Reed’s 2010 campaign. Despite a great 2009 season, Reed started 2010 in the dumps and found only rare flashes of brilliance before ending it early. After that, he ended up having to start his own team.
It happens. But what happens after it happens? What if it doesn’t go right? The old term you’re only as good as your last race is truer now more than ever since feedback and opinions are just a click away. How could a bad 2012 impact the stars?
James Stewart: Stewart’s built-in talent and speed seemed like insurance against mediocrity. If anyone should have been immune to consecutive bad seasons, it’s this man. His 2010 campaign could really just be written off to an injury (he won the opener and suffered a season-ending wrist injury at round two), but in 2011, everything that could go wrong, did, including the final indignity of a rider of Stewart’s standards: he raced all 17 races, and he finished fourth in the championship.
Even if you just think of Stewart as just a win-or-crash guy anyway, the crashes during the 2011 season were strange in quantity and quality, even for him. This led many to theorize that his Yamaha didn’t work. And yet, even as a free agent, Stewart stuck with the brand, albeit on a new team.
Photo: Garth Milan
The new Joe Gibbs Racing/James Stewart combo doesn't have any wiggle room. Another fourth in the series (or a series of crashes) will only confirm evils such as: 1) The Yamaha doesn’t work; 2). The Gibbs team couldn’t reinvent the wheel like they had hoped; and 3). Stewart is truly finished as the fastest man on the planet. And once those judgements sneak out, the final connection comes next: why did Stewart stick with Yamaha in the first place? Was it, gulp, all about the money? Today, riders can’t claim they went to teams just for support (even if they did). Remember, we’re living in an era when Reed built a competitive team around the bike he liked the most.
Such is the downside of Stewart’s outsized abilities, and super sized list of past accomplishments. He could come up short of a championship in 2012 simply because the competition has stepped up. But once you’re dubbed the fastest man on the planet, that reasoning doesn’t wash. You have to live up to that hype, or the season is a failure. And such failure is going to send blame in a lot of directions—not just praise to the competition.
Ryan Dungey: Ryan Dungey and KTM arguably have the most on the line in 2012. KTM, stained by a legacy that has yet to place a rider on the podium in the supercross class, finally has a legitimate title contender under its wings, but what if Dungey fails to meet expectations?
Those expectations are sky high. A proven winner under Suzuki, Dungey is now beckoned with the task of turning around a supercross program that has been in turmoil for the entire history of the brand. If Dungey fails to produce early, the ghosts of KTMs past will being to surface. Many will question Dungey’s decision to leave a bike and program he has proven he can win on, to jump to the unproven KTM.
Dungey has a two-year deal with KTM, so they may point to 2012 as a “learning year,” but in reality, can he go from 2010 champ and 2011 contender, then take a step back for an entire year and not expect any heat? The jury will not wait until 2013 to render a decision.
Photo: Simon Cudby
Ryan Villopoto: With victory comes a higher expectation—an expectation to win early and often. No rider will have that pressure breathing down their throats in 2012 more than Ryan Villopoto. Although Villopoto’s historic 2011 season (SX and MX title, MXoN and MEC victories) will forever have its place in the record books, the expectations for Villopoto have never been higher. Don’t believe me; take a look back at the criticism that was placed on Ryan Dungey after getting off to a slow start this past season—after producing a similar season to Villopoto’s in 2010.
While Villopoto has more to gain and less to lose that any of the other “Big Four,” there is still pressure to produce. But in all reality, it’s hard to justify Villopoto losing much if he fails to take home a SX title in 2012—because he can always point to his four major titles in 2011. If he rides well but comes up short, his strong 2011 campaign will serve as backup to his value and reputation.
Photo: Simon Cudby
Chad Reed: Reed’s sad sack 2010 left him out of mulligans for 2011—with his own team, his back was against the wall. If Reed reeled off a bunch of seventh place finishes at the beginning of 2011, it would have been over and done for him. But he pulled through to restablish himself as a genuine championship contender again, the feel-good story of the season.
That’s the upside of the short memories in this sport. In one year, Reed inspired what seemed like a million “didn’t like him before, but I’ve become a big fan” comments. The haters began to love, the lovers loved more. Even if he washes out in 2012, his reputation and legacy are safe.
But these guys aren’t just racing to build a legacy—they want trophies. How much does Reed have in the tank? He’ll turn 30 during this season, which will be his tenth in the big-bike class. His big crash at Millville knocked the steam out of his 2011 season, which stoked fears that the older you get, the less willing you are to come all the way back after a big scare (no matter that Reed also lost his best friend in 2010, only to come back even faster on the track).
But time is undefeated in sports. Someday, age and younger competitors are going to get him. And when it does, will his TwoTwo team be able to keep the good vibes and good results going when the owner is no longer the rider? The longer Reed can keep that element at bay, the better for his business. So he needs to have another good season!
Photo: Andrew Fredrickson
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Kind of sick of the 'Yamaha excuse' for Stewart- he would set the fastest qualifiers, so just cause he implodes in the race doesnt mean the bike is at fault. move to excuse #7
MustardDog...lets not make this a bash rider conversation please...remember, 7 only ever said once that he didn't have the yamaha setup the right way...the media brings it up more than he ever has...truth
this is the best and most honest article i have read on racerx probably ever...no bias...i liked it...its dead on...
I think it should be pretty close at A1. RV has the momentum right now. I think Dungey will have the KTM dialed and be right there if he gets the starts. Bubba has not raced in a while but I think his team will keep his head screwed on and a better bike under him. Reed didnt have all that many great SX races last year, he was just consistant. I'm curious to see if the Millvile crash is still in his head. The 5th through 10th spots will be an all out war as well. Can't wait for A1 !
People hate on Stewart so fast, if he wasnt so fast people wouldnt have a reason to get mad when his name comes up. Thats what I like about him, he is almost and underdog at this point due to all the doubters and to see him win will make all the haters mad. GO BUBBA! 2012 SX Champ.
not bashing anyone- just want to leave the bike excuse out of the list
So lets assume the 2, 5, 7 & 22 bikes are the top four. That leaves Brayton, Metcalf, Windham, Wiemer, Milsaps, Short, Grant, Alessi, Hahn, Hanny, Chisolm, Tedesco, Tickle, Stoupe, Wey, Hill, Morais, Canard (eventualy) and hopefully Regal all trying to make the main each week. The privateers dont have much of chance. That is one stacked class!
These guys are all so good and riding at such a high level that the bike is either a non-factor, or it hinders them completely. Stewart crashed around like a pinball in 2011, and this point is undeniable, but so has everyone else at one time or another in their career. Dungey is on a brand new scooter and he looked fantastic at the Monster's Ball, but boy did he ever end up on the ground a great deal in the Lites Division. Reed rode his own bike, had incredible success and crashed spectacularly outdoors. Stewart just happened to ragdoll as he was in the lead or fighting for it. Makes the glare of the spotlight burn brighter than the surface of the sun.
Good article! Hopefully 2012 season with match or be better than the 2011 season. I also believe now that if Stewies bike didn't work for him, he wouldn't have signed to ride the same bike again. But everyone should take note of Poto's ride in Vegas, is this what we will see 2012?
@thetoothperry116 I don't think speed is what is hindering Stewart with the fans. Even though none of us rabid fans know the guy, his personality just doesn't jive for some petty reason. I love watching the guy ride, but I would rather Reed or Dungey win. For me, it's all in fun. I probably wouldn't want to hang out with any of these guys if I truly knew them.
Yes, I know Canard doesn't have a big bike championship and the line has to be drawn somewhere, but it should be the big 5, not the big 4. That dude has the speed of Stewart but the luck of Daffy Duck.
KTM has never had the top AMA Supercross talent on there bikes in the past so to say they have never had a bike is just poor writing. KTM has been winning everything on the Planet except AMA racing and now that they have the talent hired people still bash the brand and make up stories just to write something.
If I am wrong please let me know who has lined up on a KTM capable of winning a AMA Supercross race. McGrath didn't line up so don't bring that one in the mix.
Also, when was the last time Honda won a Supercross Championship? Does this mean the bikes are crappy from the day RC left Honda??
I just think KTM will produce results this year. Look at all of the teams running KTM's in the Lites class.
Also the bike Dungey will be riding is not the same 2012 you are going to buy from your dealer. Decoster has made this bike and KTM put the money out to make a 2012-1/2 or 2013 early. KTM is also far ahead of the big 4 jap bikes in R&D.
half316 you are dead on... this is one of the best articles produced by RX in a long time. I have been talking and reading so much bench racing in the last month and it all seems to have blended together until this one. So good job boys! Now on to my bench racing opinion... cause I know you all want to hear it! :)....
Stewarts monacer just makes me ill... I have no idea how he can still be called the fastest man on the planet after seeing what RV did last year. I am openly not a JS fan and while I do not wish him any ill will I do hope that he performs the way he always has and is brought back down to earth by yet another season without a championship. It will be nice for our sport to move on from this thing that just like 'hucabuk" won't seem to go away. I think once he does lose this description of himself everyone should wonder if they will ever win a race again. The guy is just plain scary fast and without this particular elephant hanging around his neck he will have to be taken more seriously in my eyes. Doesn't mean I'll like him any just that I will be forced to be that much more hopeful for riders that I do like.
Dungey is a solid individual. I agree that if he doesn't do well this year that KTM will call it a learning year and come guns a blazin in 2013... or maybe even as soon as 2012 outdoors. I think his move and the understanding that Roger Decoster is a mad scientist imprinting his engineering genius on the KTM gives him a pass to not go nuts and ride over his head or the bikes abilities in supercross. It was obvious at the monster event that bike has issues under a guy with his riding ability. Will be fun to watch and hopefully when he does get on the podium he will drop hints as to the direction Roger is taking that bike. My son and I have counted him out of the top three this year... and that's cool with us... we are willing to be patient enough to see what comes next year.
RV has a pass! Straight to another championship - Period! No pressure there. He knows who he is, what he is capable of and that he currently has the most rediculous motorcycle on the market underneath him. If he doesn't win early and often all he has to say is "Dude I just got married my brains just got all scrambled". Everyone of us married guys will understand his issues, give him time and still love him for it. Any smack talkers will just be JS fans that will finally have a point to gloat about... for that week anyway.
Chad Reed is quickly elevating himself to K-Dub status amongst those of us that that ride and race. He is finally a grown up and it is refreshing to see! If Reed can pull out a top three this year he will become legendary! Who else in this sport can pull themselves up from crying every weekend on tv, leaving trophies on stadium floors and turning many of his fans against himself only to - in his darkest hour - say screw all this - I came to America because I had a dream. I lost sight of that dream and damit if the best way to realize that dream isn't to just do it on my own! My Way! - Personally, I love it! I am a reformed Reed hater. Reason...Any guy that can just hang it out there and take risks driven only by his passion for achievement in his sport is a top notch individual in my eyes. Makes him one of the few guys in the spotlight that I enjoy watching my 12 year old racer look up to. Wouldn't it be cool to see him finish top three in SX and MX, call it a day (healthy and happy), then start 2013 as a part time rider and full time owner/ coach? He could easily become a Mitch Payton in the future if he stays on the path he has carved for himself. That would be cool!
2012 is ging to be epic. RV has the speed and in my opinion should be called the fastest man on the planet. RD is going to be fast and consistent if the bike is ready but with roger working on the bike and ktms drive to win and do well in 2012 it should be ready. js7 will be fast for suuure and will be a contender but i dont think he can run the pace that RV &RD; are running without crashing and burnin. CR a great star of the sport trully one of the best ever. he is going to do well and will probably win 1-3 races just like years past and will be in contension. TC dood is crazy fast and will win races when he comes back. throw in at the other guys that are in this field and there will be 12-15 guys that if luck goes there way could get a podium. i think that RV&RD; will leave everyone else in the dust james will prolly easily get 3rd if he dont crash out. but i think its going to be RV vs RD. come A1 we will see tho. GO RV1!!!!!!!!!!!!
lololololol i like how everyone think js cant hang with those guys anymore. lololol people forget what this guy can do when he is on. cant really think of a time that rv and rd have passed and left js. i think rv has done it once or twice. please dont think im a hater. i love all those guys.
you can argue all you want. If the new sheriff and havoc7 stay upright there GONE. PERIOD.
I'm by no means a straight JS7 fan but I think you guys are watching a different cable channel than me. My wife and I spend X-mas watching all of the previous seasons races in Prep for the season. The St. Louis SX JS7 absolutely caught, passed and left Villopoto in the dust, please tell me when anyone did that to Stewart on nights that he didn't throw it away? I'll tell ya.....IT NEVER happend, Dodger stadium was the closest anyone came to a "straight up" pass as you like to call it and yet again, he washed a front wheel before that happend!!
RV I think will be a little lazy and content this year
RD I still don't think the equipment is there, although I would like to see him do well
CR who knows, Reed will win some races but may crash big going big SEE MILLVILLE
RV is NOT on another level from Stewart, i"m sorry people but he only won ONE more race than Stewart and actually Stewart led the most laps of the season, thank you reference RacerX!! Facts are facts, good luck to ALL the guys this season, some of you should go watch 2011 film! ALL the top 4 are fast and neither is deserving of a "Next Level" title because they ALL won in 2011 SX or MX!
Going back to the days of when you had factory teams with 3 or 4 guys on the team that were all capable of pulling off a win...for example the Kawasaki team of Ward, Chicken, MxKied, and Larocco...or Honda of Johnson, Stanton, Bayle......It is really cool to see a field with this many variables....2012 is the most stacked field ever and it should be good racing.
As a former racer, I am a fan of all these guys...I realize nobody is perfect and that is true with all these guys.
Most folks who dump on JS7 dont know JS7. He is obviously skilled, we all know that...he isnt slow, he doesnt suck and just a reminder, the MEDIA gave him that monicar of Fastest Man on the Planet, not James Stewart...when he was 16 years old on a KX125 he was, but nobody else has that name to live up to either...The GOAT nickname came around close to the end of RC"s career...not the beginning...he didnt have to live up to that or hear it called out every time he through a leg over the bike........I have watched JS7 come up from riding 60's and back in amateurs when he was just a kid.....then all the sudden he is racing 125 supercross in a league of men while still just a kid.....call it what you will, but knowing personally how these guys train and ride, there isnt much time for anything else other than the "business" of MX....and I think as manhood caught up to JS7, he may not have handled it the best way at times, but usually he is pretty down to earth guy who likes to have a good time....people that look for reasons to hate will find them.....those who dont like Reed will still find a reason to not like Reed....At the end of the day, the racers are there for themselves first as they should be and cant please everyone....fans come after.....
Personally, seeing JS7 get back to winning would be a sight to see and "my guy" if you will is RV....Redemption is always sweet.....it will be tought to do, but it can be done.....so lets leave all the nonsense out at watch some good racing....let the cards fall where they may...I'll still be watchin on the sidelines like all you guys...not out on the track, where we wish we were!
Not that anyone really cares, but here are my thoughts....
RV won the SX championship last year on the 2011 bike. RV struggled on that bike, but he still won the SX championship. Since switching to the 2012 bike, RV has won 8 out of 11 times he lined up. Two of the times he didn't win were at a very muddy Southwick where nearly everyone was in "survival" mode. The other time he didn't win was the last race of MX at Pala and he didn't need to win. He led every lap at the Monster Cup and was turning lap times about 2 seconds a lap faster than anyone else. That's a lot in SX.
Bottom line is we should all be suprised if Villopoto doesn't smoke the competition this year.
mechani81. JS didnt "pass and leave rv in the dust at st louis. he passed and left dungey yeah. but not rv. ryan came from 10th place start at los angeles and caought and was going to pas stewart. james will not beat RV
The article on JS7 is not cool.. The questions about the bike are ridiculous. If it were bad, how did he set the fastest qual time nearly every round. Look it up starting from A1 2011. He was almost a second faster each week.. I would think it was the bike if he was finishing higher in the race than his qual timing position. When you set the fastest lap times of the night then crash out or make mistakes here and there its not the bike...Watch Daytona.. How is that the Yamaha's fault when he holeshots, grabs a huge lead, checks out, then crashes over a stupid step over..Rider error.. He is gonna be faster than ever. Nothing to loose any more just ride..
@mxchampion...He beat him 5 times last year, what do you feel has changed?? Just being realistic...We all watched Dungey catch and Pass RV in the Nationals, more than once.....so why is it hard to fathom that other people will win races besides RV in SX?
*moniker....how many people are going to misspell this?
i know that others are going to win. i never said that. RV is a smarter rider then james
who do you want to see win mechanix81?
Those that bet against RV better keep those wagers on the small side
Last few races RV was killin it like he used to oh his 250F
JIm M
Really, if Dungey and Roger can't do it, who can. What about KTM's history in Europe at MX. Your quote-A proven winner under Suzuki, Dungey is now beckoned with the task of turning around a supercross program that has been in turmoil for the entire history of the brand. Entire history. Hmmmmmm. We will see . . .
In 2011 - RV and JS7 split the majority of the SX victories and both had fatal nights in Jacksonville.. JS7 had a few other bad nights like Daytona which if you look at it, it was the differnce in points that gave him 4th rather than 2nd or possibly the title...that 1 race in the end blew it for him......If he can avoid those type of nights in 2012, he will be ok and be a top threat for the title as he showed in 2011 when he is on, he is still the man to beat........While the defending champ Dungey did have the A2 chain derailment in 2011, he only mustered one victory the entire series and had that A2 debacle not occured and the DNF's for JS7 and RV not occurred, the points race would have been the same in the end, only the guy who would have been trailing behind in 4th at the end had those DNFs not occured would have been Reed.....Proof that consistency pays off , but its not always what you do, but what happens to others that can make or break your year...If things were to play out that way (and I know it didnt, just playin devils advocate) would Reeds team be seen as much of a success as it was had he finished in 4th....It just goes to show what 1 race can do thses day....Crazy!! I am ready for 2012...just hope my stomach is...
*note: the above is a "what if" scenario that has been stated several times.. No matter who your pick is, the point is how much one race can effect these guys
Here is the weak point in the argument that James was setting fast lap times so it couldn't be the bike. Did you ever stop to think that he is making up for the shortcomings of the bike with his ability??? He also isn't the only rider that has had issues getting the Yamaha 450 to work to their liking.
Either way, the question should be how much faster might James be if they actually do get the bike to work to his liking?
P
" If i dont win, its the bikes fault " i find this works everytime
@theycall me p. you hit it perfect. james is making up for the bikes short comings with his talent. i was reading on a website that james didnt want to return to a yamaha team and wanted the suzuki ride. so hes on jgr and he says that bike it better but not as good as a factory bike would be. if he really wanted to ride a good bike the money wouldnt matter to him. jgr was willing to pay the bucks and thats why hes on a yamaha in 2012. james is a great rider but i just dont see him beating rv with a bike thats not set up to the par of a factory bike.
7 enigma. Everything + Kitchen Sink.......... but the mid-race brainlock and ensuing mayhem.......entertaining? HELL YES.
If the KTM sucks this year R&D will get goose to fix it before the next......
22 is 30 damn, smart and fast, hope he is he built to last.
2 Pit Bull on a motorbike, beat him and you have beat the beast, good luck you're gonna need it.
@Mechanix81
Ryan "The Magician" Villopoto is always my favorite, but Villopoto often starts the seasons a little off the pace. But you are right on about Stewart. He is many things to many people but "Slow" is not one of them. I will not be surprised if a demoralized Dungey struggles at the beginning of the season, Reed could start hot or hurt. Realistically, one of these guys is gonna get injured and ruin our perfect fantasy but till then, let the Racing begin...See you all at A1!