by Chase Stallo
Racer X Breakdown: Supercross Class
Thursday, April 28, 2011 | 10:45 AM
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Four, nine, two. It’s pretty simple math folks—four riders, separated by nine points, with two races to go. With one of the most dramatic seasons in the history of AMA Monster Energy Supercross just two weeks away from becoming a distant image fading away in the rear-view mirror, can the boys conjure up one lasting impression? Judging by the season thus far, things have only just begun.
From James Stewart’s and Chad Reed’s rekindled warfare, to Ryan Dungey’s chain break—yes, that did actually happen to a top rider in the year 2011—to Ryan Villopoto’s DNQ, with every passing race this season has become more and more like a day time soap opera than a Supercross series.
A rivalry renewed.
Photo: Simon Cudby
Now with just two rounds remaining in one of the most hotly contested supercross series on record, will the play live up to the billing or will the hype fade off into the Vegas sunset?
We’ll know soon. Until then, we’ll break down the supercross class title contenders.
Ryan Villopoto 293 points: It seems like this series has been Villopoto’s for the taking for quite some time. After grabbing command of the series early and building what seemed like an insurmountable points lead, lately Villopoto has been on, for lack of better words, a cold streak. Beginning with the now infamous DNQ at Jacksonville, Villopoto has only two podiums in the last five races. He started the year with eight podium finishes in ten races, including five wins.
Although he has also gone without a win since Indianapolis in mid-March, Villopoto still controls his own destiny with two races to go. He holds a six-point lead over Reed with two to go, so the moniker “win and you’re in” only fits for Villopoto.
And winning is still a goal. After his disappointing fourth-place finish at his home race in Seattle (where he overcame getting bumped onto a tough block in the first turn), Villopoto mentioned after the race that he would still like to get at least one more race victory before this season ends. Clearly, he knows trying to back into the crown with consistency is not the best mindset—RV wants to get back to his aggressive early-season mode.
RV still controls his own destiny.
Photo: Simon Cudby
Being the only rider in the hunt without a Supercross title to his name, and with a points lead to boot, all the pressure would seem to be on his shoulders. But this is what Villopoto prepared himself for with a rigorous off-season training regimen that included hiring the infamous Aldon Baker. He’s a lean machine this year, but no doubt Baker has him prepared to not peak too soon and not break down during the stretch run. In addition, Villopoto has never been the type to lack confidence during his pro career, and if anyone should be able to avoid overthinking the situation and succumbing to the pressure, he would be the one.
But the Monster Energy Supercross Championship is a big one. And this is an historic season, and no one wants to be remembered as the guy who threw it away. Even for someone with Villopoto’s considerable mental strength, that’s a lot to think about.
Chad Reed 287 points: The model of consistency. This style has fit Reed since the beginning. Never one to push the proverbial limit unless needed, 2011 has once again proved to be a “Reed” type year. While Reed says he’s surprised with the amount of mistakes he has made this year, in the big picture, consistency and patience have one again placed Reed right in the thick of things. After watching contender after contender fall victim to the proverbial “bad race” Reed was finally struck in Dallas in the form of a freight train named James Stewart, costing Reed not only a podium position but the points lead. But even that night serves to point out Reed’s most critical stat: his eighth in Dallas was his worst finish of the year. Everyone else has had a much, much worse finish on their bad night.
Reed survived Dallas with an eighth place finish.
Photo: Simon Cudby
As is the case with Dungey, Reed only has one victory to his credit this season (San Diego) but continues to be at the forefront of the spotlight. The trouble is, there have been a few nights where Reed just couldn’t quite find the pace, and he can’t afford anymore of those over the last two rounds. If Reed cashes in at Vegas he will become the first privateer in Supercross history to win a championship, along with becoming the first rider/team owner to stake his claim to the throne. History, of course.
Ryan Dungey: 286 points: Just a year ago echoes of “what if” reverberated throughout the message boards after then Supercross rookie Ryan Dungey wrapped up his first career title—becoming the first rookie since Jeremy McGrath in ’93 to capture a championship in his inaugural season. What if Villopoto hadn’t got hurt? What if Stewart and Reed were healthy? Sentiments rang throughout the supercross community after Dungey’s title run. Now a year later and with a stable full of riders chasing the title, Dungey once again finds himself in the thick of yet another championship hunt.
Having only toped the box only once this year (Toronto) Dungey’s series-leading eleven podiums have keep him in the championship chase. Often criticized for his lack of aggression throughout 2011, Dungey has fired back with consistency and a willingness to settle for what is being given. In this season, especially, that’s critical. Dungey’s bad run with a broken chain was not his fault, so you can safely say he hasn’t crashed away big points this year like many of the others. But with two races remaining can Dungey continue to settle for podium finishes?
Can Dungey bring home back-to-back titles?
Photo: Simon Cudby
James Stewart: 284 points: The rider most affected by the off-week had to have been James Stewart. Coming off back-to-back dominant performances in St. Louis and Seattle the bye week couldn’t have come at a worse time for the hottest (at least) rider on the planet. After enduring the longest losing streak of his career (eight races between wins), and an off-track incident that drew criticism far and wide, Stewart was finally able to put all the pieces of the puzzle together in St. Louis. Seattle was no different as Stewart jumped out front early and decimated the field en route to yet another convincing win.
So what do you do if you’ve overcome some on and off track obstacles and put together a quick win streak? After Seattle, Stewart said he was going take his family to the Bahamas for Easter!
Can Stewart complete the comeback?
Photo: Simon Cudby
That’s what happens when you’re fourth in points. Not much strategy, not much to stress about. Sitting nine points back of Villopoto, Stewart has one choice and one choice only: just win baby. Stewart has little room for error and even with wins at Salt Lake City and the series finale in Vegas, is still in need of help from those in front of him. So the Vegas deck is stacked against him, but if anyone is capable of taking the big gamble to win it all, Stewart is the guy.
If Stewart does overcome his roller coaster ride of a season on and off the track, his legacy will receive a serious boost. But really, that goes for all four of these riders. Win in 2011 and it will be remembered forever.
No pressure.
Spoilers: With Trey Canard out with a femur injury the list of spoilers diminishes even more. But let’s not forget that Kevin Windham has a history of performing well under poor conditions (see Seattle), and with rain in the forecast throughout the week in Salt Lake City don’t be surprised to see the wily veteran stick a wheel inside the top-five. He won in SLC last year.
The other major factor that must be mentioned is the teammate factor. Villopoto’s teammate Jake Weimer is making his season debut in Salt Lake City. Stewart’s teammate Kyle Regal has had a tendency over the last few races to line up beside Villopoto on the start. Don’t be surprised if things get a little “touchy” in the first turn. With Dungey’s mate Brett Metcalfe out with injury, he and Reed will be saddling up lone ranger style the last two races.
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Dungey's chain did not "break", it derailed. Warfare is one word.
Can't wait to see how this season ends!!!! Cr22 Js7 then Rv2 my prediction good luck Reed!!!
nice first post
this is what it will feel like for JS7 if he wins this thing...
http://i.imgur.com/1JpNJ.gif
I bet JS is going to win out, but I'm still not sure that it's going to be enough. As crazy as this sounds, I think the points spread between these four is actually going to be closer than 9 points when the checkers fly in Vegas.
so just to be sure, if there is a tie in points they default to number of wins as the decider right?
No matter, what we the fans and the sport we love soooo much win in the end. All of these guys deserve to win and if this were a stcik and ball sport they could but with this fantasic sport you get one winner and the rest go home defeated. What an awesome season. Thanks to all of the riders!! No matter what my work week holds I always have Saturday night to look foward to. On Sunday May 8th the history book will read:
RV, JS, CR, RD
Good question @313, if a tie come at the end of the series, who's te winner? may be they should race a one on one race.. hahaha
pretty sure if there were a tie number of race wins would decide, that's how they used to do it, can't imagine they would do it any differently, stoked to see how everything plays out and really happy about the beginning of the great outdoors!
@313 & #116 -
In the event of a tie for the championship, the winner will be determined based on the number of Main Event wins.
- Should a tie still remain, finishes of second, third, etc, will be tallied until the tie is broken.
- If a tie still remains, the best finish in the last race will determine the champion.
If say Villipoto and Stewart are tied in points, the rider with the higher number of 1st place finishes is champ. If that's a tie, it moves to the rider with the higher number of 2nd place finishes and so on, if needed.
I believe RD has 11 podiums not 9, and he ran into TC thats why he had Chain problems.. That would be HIS fault. RV needs a holeshot BAD!!! JS can win out easy IMO and if he does I still say he wins it. But I hope RV can nail a 2nd and a 3rd to win it. I would rather he gets a win but just hope he wins it.
YES the guy with the most wins wins a tie.
As lame as the track looks like its going to be for the SLC round, I cant wait for this race. Dressing warm, sneaking in a little "anti freeze" and some snacks. Gonna be a blast this Sat.!!!!
Go 32,22, and 14. Also 100.
How can RD running into TC derail his chain? I can understand if TC ran into RD that it could derail that way. In that case it's not RD's fault.
BillC You have your fats a bit mixed up
One race ago, defending champ Ryan Dungey of the Rockstar/Makita Suzuki team finished last and scored only on point because of a derailed chain - which Trey Canard is taking responsibility for. Canard says a few turns before the derailed chain, he hit Dungey's bike in the left rear.
Here is where they talked about this
http://www.grindtv.com/moto/blog/24357/what really happened houston/
A pretty presumptuous thing to say that the 7 will be the one most affected by the break.... I think its exactly the opposite... Reed and Dungey have been balled up for 2 weeks thinking about how not to gag... RV has been largely unaffected.... Just wishing Trey was healthy to throw a wrench into things... he likely would have been 2nd in Seattle, and wouldn't have been off the box at the last 2.... And, he'd have won Hangtown... If RV wins this weekend, its over, kids.....
Of course Bill blames Dungey, he hates Dungey, never writes anything good about him. And Canard admitted it was his fault, is that good enough for you Bill??
Yes thats right, my bad!!! But I was lead to believe RD caused it, IF it was all TC why was TC so pissed at RD after the race? Also people say RV DNS in Jacksonville was his fauld because he got bad starts so ya could say this was RD fault too because he got a bad start i guess. Either way why was TC so pissed at RD?
HEY DICK STAIN that can't use his own name did I not just corect the fact that RD had 11 podiums and NOT 9. Hmmmmmmmm sticking up for RD by someone who hates him. Man you look like a fool now don't ya?? Get a life loser.
I would like to see JS7 win the remaining 2 races just to prove he is still the best, and still the "fastest man on the planet" any given day by smioking these guys and proving all the haters he was simply having a bad stretch of crazyness.... RV will stick around in 2nd to claim the title, if not he can win both races too.....fine by me....RV and JS are the two "dominant" guys......it should come down to them....
WOW....what a year...who would of thought we would be as tight as two virgin nuns on prom night going into the final 2 races....I hope my guy pulls it off....with the bad luck they (RV & Bubba) have had, they deserve some good luck now....let the chips fall where they may....keep it clean guys!!!
How exactly is Reed a privateer? The last race honda announced they were throwing full support behind Reed and Windham to help them " Wrap up their titles". Thats not privateer.... he may have started that way but its not that way no more.. thus inelligible
re TC & RD chain incident: fail the holeshot, fight the pack, & things happen. None of them are good & bent shifters, kinked cables, wobbly brake rotors, unbuckled boots, & derailed chains are amongst the most common that maybe don't put you on the ground. RD's chain was the result of a bad start. Hard to believe this requires review.
@ the man --- this topic has been beaten like a dead horse, but Reed was never a "privateer" in the true meaning of the word...He wasnt on a "factory" team either because he wanted to do things "his way"...well that means "spend your own money ass clown"...but He has received help from Factory Honda, PC, etc since day one and more and more help as the year has progressed..First podium of the year in Oakland he thanked Honda before anyone....His "privateer" status has been greatly exaggerated in my opinion as I think he has had a side deal with Honda since the beginning.... and that seems more likely every week....
if only js7 would have gotten up and finished 2nd after reed took him out in atlanta instead of finishing 4th he would have 4 more points and winning out would give him the title, and why are they talking about rv2 dnq? stewart dnf that very race...
When a team registers to compete at the the start of the the season you have to meet certain criteria to classify as a factory outfit. Like a factory signing off on it. None of the factories would do a deal with Reed then so if your team does not meet the requirements you must fill out the privateer form. Is Reed a privateer YES the AMA made him register as one why? because his team did not meet the factory criteria.Its not up to Reed the AMA decides.
"What if" don't mean s*#t in this sport. I think RV2 has yet to let it really hang out...but now he needs to just keep it on two wheels and he'll win it! Reed and Havoc7 will find each other again and whoever stays UP will have a shot if RV f's up. If Dungey gets out of the draft and does some damage hes a wild card.....can't wait ,i love this season but do wish 41 was still in it."what if he did'nt.............
Something tells me Dungey is gonna have this title again and Pourcel or RV will have the outdoor title no matter who shows up.For the lites class outdoors I have to go with Musquin or Wilson. I like Barcia tho but he just aint Musquin
lets not forget, JW will be back this weekend, and im not sure if any of you have noticed, but hes not exactly going to be last place, if he get between JS and CR or JS and RV the last 2, JS will have it as long as he wins.....just my 2 cents
This is a great read. It is the writers oppinions in some cases but thats cool. Nice job, never mind the goons trying to pick it apart. I like it
Good comentary on the post all, @BillC I like you posts even though you make mistakes sometimes that is ok. Me? Im gonna be in the hospital for a hip replcement when the final comes down... hope the nurses can find it on the TV ??
Hwy Chase a very good write up indeed, thanks!
I hope you guys aren't to busy on here arguing moot points about "what if" and miss CR22 winning the champonship!
Has anyone thought about what Roczen may do to the mix?