by Bad Billy
Bench Racing Ammo: Points: 2011 A.D.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011 | 1:15 PM
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The 2011 Daytona Supercross by Honda marked Round 9 of the seventeen-race Monster Energy AMA Supercross Championship, meaning it’s just past the halfway point of the series. Daytona has a rich tradition of being the roughest, meanest track on the circuit, as well as being a major milestone in determining the outcome of the series.
Wait, what was that last part?
Well, Ricky Carmichael himself always believed that the Daytona Supercross marked the beginning of the series’ home stretch. He felt that if you were healthy and in the points lead after Daytona, odds were really in your favor to take home the most prestigious championship in dirt bike racing. As RC has said on many occasions throughout his career, “I don’t think the series really starts until Daytona.”
Will history repeat itself?
Photo: Simon Cudby
We decided to put Carmichael’s belief to the test and take a look back through the results to see how many times the points leader after Daytona has gone on to win the AMA Supercross Championship throughout the past two decades.
YEAR POINTS LEADER A.D. CHAMPION
2011 Ryan Villopoto ?????????
2010 Ryan Dungey Ryan Dungey
2009 Chad Reed James Stewart
2007 James Stewart James Stewart
2006 Ricky Carmichael Ricky Carmichael
2005 Ricky Carmichael Ricky Carmichael
2003 Ricky Carmichael Ricky Carmichael
2002 Ricky Carmichael Ricky Carmichael
2001 Ricky Carmichael Ricky Carmichael
2000 Jeremy McGrath Jeremy McGrath
1999 Jeremy McGrath Jeremy McGrath
1998 Jeremy McGrath Jeremy McGrath
1997 Jeff Emig Jeff Emig
1996 Jeremy McGrath Jeremy McGrath
1995 Jeremy McGrath Jeremy McGrath
1994 Jeremy McGrath Jeremy McGrath
1993 Jeremy McGrath Jeremy McGrath
1992 Damon Bradshaw Jeff Stanton
Apparently, Carmichael knows what he’s talking about. As you can see above, if you’re leading the points after Daytona, chances are pretty good you’re going to win the title. Only twice in the past nineteen seasons has the points leader not won the championship—1992 and 2009. All of which bodes well for a guy named Ryan Villopoto.
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holeshot for the canadian as JSR once did millville finishing 3rd...i always wonder if he coulda been a guy on the podium in those days, he was fast! but let me just point out, look at who was one of those guys turn it around to win the championship....James Stewart 2009 and we remember what he could do when he HAD to win
Wow, good for RV. Of the current racers, Stewart is the only one to have successfully beaten these odds.
Statistics are as useful as politicians.....Also note that both Stewart and Bradshaw have a lot of similarities in riding traits and both have defied the statistics....I believe that this championship is JS7's to lose. I love the racing so far!!!
Good point, but this is not just any supercross season... not the usual two guys and thats it.. we have 5 that are in the running.. Just sayin
2009, James had 1 guy to worry about. He will have to race much much harder this year. I'm not really a fan (well becoming one more and more) but I hope he pulls it off. He's way to young to give up the reigns just yet to the new guys.
it's over- i am going to quit watching
Stewart and Dungey have both had bad point races. If Villopoto slips up, or a DNF, it's still a 5 man race..... Not wishing any bad luck on RV because I am a fan, but it seems like everybody usually has at least one bad points race each season...We just passed the half way point let's see what Indy brings.
Indy prediction: 1st Reed, 2nd Dungey, 3rd Stewart, 4th Villopoto...Reed likes Indy and Dungey is hungry. Great season to this point. I believe things will tighten up again soon. The perfect storm is still a possibility!!!
Reed is not winning Indy...
I think RV deserves a little credit for digging deep to save points as well this season. It has not all been roses.
last to 7th? after a first turn crash. No fender, no number plate, and short lap times.
He is doing everything you need to do to win a championship. That is impressive focus.
Indy:
7, 2, 1, 22
or
2, 7, 1,22
I vote for a five-way tie going into Vegas and the luckiest (duh, vegas) man win. I'm actually more interested in the 250 E/W showdown (points shmoints, winner take all). How anybody can watch that East/West race and not resist the urge to combine the series is beyond me. Also, I think the whole GNC title concept is a good one because it keeps riders motivated throughout the season (both SX & MX), which, in the long run, will help both series. What's good for the racing is good for the fans is good for the promoters pocketbook (duh, profits = duh, winning).
@ Rick Melon, OK...But, he has won the last two Indy races he was in.......So who's going to win??
I think Alessi's got it in the bag! HA......
Sorry Mike, it's just becoming quite apparent what you’re up to.... Never saw someone move over and let someone else pass the way you do...... When the outdoors starts,” It’s On!” Looking forward to it!
Yea, why the "F" was the blue flag waved at Alessi? To let Stewie by?
This is a no brainer... RV will win the championship with relative ease! He's in the best possible shape... He has the best trainer in the business.. (Baker trained Haydn, RC and JS).. The Kawi's look pretty strong... JS will crash again.. Reed is no match for RV (Even though he believes he is.. Lol!!).. And Dungey is just proving everyone, he got lucky last year because RV was out... Well.. This will not happen in 2011.
If bets could be placed.. I would put a couple of grand on RV with no hesitation.
SX champ 2011.. RV2!
ride4ever, RV did have a bad race, San Diego, had to go have his rear fender removed by his mechanic, and came all the way back to 7th place, remember?? It is hard to exspect Stewie to lose 5 races in a row. He hasnt won in a while> My prediction is Stewie, then RV2 then Dungey.
I wonder what the point spread was between 1st and 2nd coming into and leaving Daytona in some of those years. That could shed a little more light on the situation as to whether or not whoever was in 1st turned it up after Daytona or if he had a lead by enough points that it didnt matter where he placed down the stretch. Just a thought.
yes the blue flag was waved at Alessi and others as JS7 was right in front of RV2 who the flags were intended for I don't take anything away from James but i think that helped him move through the pack
I believe that the rest of the season will belong to Reed and Stewart....Not hard to believe RV will most likely get a lot of 3rds for the rest of the SX season. Atlanta was no fluke. I believe the JS7 and CR22 show will resume now that the odd SX/MX Daytona race is over....Then again I could be totally wrong. That's the beauty of this season...nobody knows for sure...since 1994, once a rider went on a run the season was over.
Hey aa370,
JS had more than two laps left (more like 3 with this long track) when he passed 800. JS would have passed him anyway to move to 9th and that is where JS finished. Roczen was still like 12+ seconds ahead of JS at that point. So there was no more "moving through the pack" left for JS.
1,2,7 and 22 are "consistently" the fastest 450 riders on the planet. Though it is not discussed much, I think the most impressive thing about this season is RV's ability to return from a severe tib/fib break requiring surgery and having little practice time before A1. To ride this fast and in control after such a horrific injury is truly impressive.
8 more races. If Jiminy Cricket beats Carrot Top every time and they finish 1-2 every time, Jiminy can win the title by 1 point. Somehow I think he'll over-amp and epic fail, but then again, Reed might clean his front end out like a magician yanking a tablecloth out from under a table full of wine glasses.
bd200, Yea I know that was an awesome comeback, but I'm saying if he wipes near the end of a race or breaks a clutch or something, he could have a bad points race. Like 10 or less points. Then we could have a real 4 or 5 way battle for the championship. You never know!!!
Rick rick rick, melon melon melon.... aaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Awesome stat comparison ! only stewart and jeff stanton were able to stop that trend, interesting. i still dont think this one is over yet. Go rv, js, cr,, rd, tc, gogogo!
i would bet with you didierlotsyeng, but how do you exchange $ on the net, pay pal?? not 1000-$ but maybe a hundred. just going with the odds.
@jailtime. Stop making fun of everybody with your stupid names. Get a life.
This analysis would be a lot more meaningful if the point spread and number of remaining rounds after Daytona were included for each year. It'd be interesting to see the final points for each year compared with that as well.
This season is far from over, and there are a number of riders that still have a chance to be champ. But for me I would like to see the 7 up there but we will see that is why we race every weekend. And so we can all come on here and act like we know what we are talking about. I sure love MX! Oh yea wish us luck at Tomahawk this weekend my 7 year old is trying to qualify for loretta's.
James will Just chisolm RV2! (i am joking)
Also never been competition like this!!
Cool Statistic although it means nothing other than a little more pressure for Villopoto. Like there could be any more. Leading the points do you ride conservative? le on ot if you like but they are all battle for the lead? let the top 2 go on any given night? The only time you really charge is when you get a lousy start right? Don't kid yourself we have a series here folks and and every point counts! it is too close to call!
Reed wins indy after a battle with Canard and Villo. Stewart pile drives himself and Villo while trying to get thru traffic. After this race it back to 15 points between the top 4. .....at least thats what the crystal ball says...
if stewart makes it to vegas in one piece, and villopoto still wins it anyway, then it will be the first time ever, that stewart has lost a championship to any other rider (besides carmichael).
if stewart crashes himself out of contention for this title, it will be the first time that he has failed to win a title, in between major injuries.
2 years ago stewart crashed hard at daytona, started near last, and rode a bent up bike to 7th place. He left daytona, behind in points, and then, was one of only 2 riders to ever win the title anyways. This time, he has a little more ''ground'' to make up, but thats what makes it so much fun to watch imo. If stewart can do it against reed, i think he can do it against villopoto, too.
Whether he suceeds at it or not, it will be fun to watch.
'09 After Daytona Reed had an 11 point lead over Stewart. At the end of the season Bubba won the championship by 4 points